Standard Chartered lowers 2026 Bitcoin target to $100,000; spot ETF sees $410 million outflow in a single day, market may dip to $50,000

On February 13, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a new round of selling. On the same day, Standard Chartered Bank lowered its price forecast for Bitcoin in 2026, prompting the market to reassess its medium-term outlook.

Data shows that on that day, total net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $410.4 million, with weekly outflows reaching $375.1 million. If no significant inflows occur subsequently, this will be the fourth consecutive week of negative fund flows. The total assets under management for related funds have fallen back to approximately $80 billion, well below the nearly $170 billion peak in October 2025.

Against the backdrop of continued capital outflows, Standard Chartered Bank lowered its 2026 Bitcoin target price from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that before a rebound, the price could further decline to $50,000. The bank also predicted that Ethereum might drop to around $1,400 before recovering to higher levels within the year.

Market sentiment is also reflected in the performance of multi-asset ETFs. Bitcoin-related products generally came under pressure, with Ethereum ETFs experiencing over $100 million in outflows, indicating that investors are becoming more cautious about risk assets in the short term. In contrast, Solana-related ETFs saw a slight net inflow, making them one of the few assets to perform countertrend.

On-chain and derivatives analysis firms believe Bitcoin is still in the mid-stage of a bear market cycle. CryptoQuant pointed out that key support levels around $55,000 have not been fully tested, and the market has not yet entered an “extreme bear market” phase. Historical experience shows that true cycle bottoms are often accompanied by larger unrealized losses among long-term holders.

As of press time, Bitcoin hovered around $66,000, with short-term resistance still present. With ETF capital flows, macro environment, and institutional expectations all weakening simultaneously, the market will closely watch whether the $50,000 to $55,000 range will become the new battleground for bulls and bears.