Author: Chain Research Society
Is 2028 the Diamond Bottom for BTC?
2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.
1. A drop without reason is the deepest fear
In 2018, a 73% decline was due to the ICO bubble bursting, with many altcoins collapsing to zero. In 2022, a 77% drop was caused by Luna’s collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX’s bankruptcy. Every crash, you know the cause.
Each time, you know where the enemy is and how long it takes to rebuild trust. But what about 2026?
• No exchange failures
• No algorithmic stablecoin collapses
• No hacking attacks
• No country banning BTC
It just fell. Fortune magazine said: the worst start to the year in history, but without a clear catalyst for the crash.
A crash with a reason usually leads to a rebound after the negative sentiment is exhausted; but a reasonless fall feels like slow bleeding. When everyone is asking why it’s falling but can’t find an answer, panic exponentially amplifies.
2. Have the bottom-fishing indicators finally appeared?
Currently, quantitative market indicators show that the market has entered a vacuum zone of irrational selling.
According to the latest data from February 25, our bottom-fishing model’s current signal is only 1/5, far from the true bottom (data source: fuckbtc).
❌ MVRV < 1.0
❌ Price ≤ 200-week moving average
❌ Price
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