As of March 3, Bitcoin’s trading price has hovered around $68,000, up approximately 2.6% in the past 24 hours. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has still declined about 22%, over 40% below its October 2025 all-time high. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck told CNBC that he believes Bitcoin is currently forming a bottom.
VanEck pointed out that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is the main driver of the current bear market, rather than fundamental changes. “Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive years, then experienced a correction in the fourth year. 2026 is exactly the fourth year of this cycle,” he added. The supply cap of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, with miners receiving half the block rewards every four years. This structural factor creates price cycles.
Additionally, van Eck said that Bitcoin’s recent recovery is also related to geopolitical tensions caused by the U.S. and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliations. He mentioned that cryptocurrency payment channels can bypass traditional banking systems for fund transfers in conflict zones, citing the UAE and Dubai as examples.
Despite geopolitical tensions, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows remain strong. According to SoSoValue data, on Tuesday, ETF daily inflows reached about $458 million, the highest this quarter. Last week, ETF inflows totaled around $1.1 billion over three consecutive trading days, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund accounting for half. Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital noted that weekend geopolitical news triggered about $300 million in long positions being closed, but overall market risk remained “controllable.” Implied volatility in the options market once rose to 93% before falling back, indicating most traders are hedging risks.
In February, Bitcoin’s price mainly fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000. It reached a high of $69,213 on Monday but failed to break the $70,000 level. As of 1:25 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at $67,884. Analysts warn that the Middle East situation remains uncertain, and market risk appetite is fragile. In the short term, prices could still be affected by geopolitical events.
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