Citigroup Slashes Bitcoin Price Target! Legislative Progress Falls Short of Expectations, Policy Tailwinds Unlikely to Materialize in Near Term

Citi Cuts 12-Month Price Targets for BTC and ETH, Reflecting Delays in U.S. Crypto Legislation and Rising Macro Uncertainty, Wall Street Reassesses Regulatory Benefits.

Citigroup has recently lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are becoming more cautious about the mid-term outlook for the crypto market. The bank reduced its Bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000, and Ethereum’s from $4,304 to $3,175. The main reason for this adjustment is that progress on U.S. crypto legislation has fallen short of expectations, delaying regulatory catalysts that could have driven market revaluation.

Citigroup believes that the slowdown in the U.S. Congress’s efforts to advance the Crypto Market Structure Act is the primary factor behind the downward revision. The report notes that the Senate’s progress on the Clarity Act has been hindered by disagreements over stablecoin regulations, and the legislative window for actionable laws in 2026 is narrowing. For the market, this means that policies that could improve regulatory clarity, encourage institutional participation, and boost ETF demand are unlikely to materialize in the near term.

Citigroup analyst Alex Saunders stated in the report, “Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and capital flows, but the window for U.S. legislation this year is closing.”

In terms of magnitude, Citi’s outlook for both major crypto assets has become notably more cautious. The new Bitcoin target is approximately 21.7% lower than previous estimates, and Ethereum’s is about 26.2% lower. This not only reflects reduced expectations for regulatory tailwinds but also indicates that, amid macro uncertainties and policy delays, the market’s mid-term valuation models are being recalibrated.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Still Have Upside, but the Baseline Scenario Has Weakened

Nonetheless, Citi does not turn entirely bearish. Instead, it suggests that, compared to earlier more optimistic forecasts, the firm now expects a more gradual upward trajectory for the crypto market over the next year.

More importantly, Citi presents both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios: in a potential recession, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000, and Ethereum to $1,198. Conversely, in a more optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach $165,000, and Ethereum could rise to $4,488. This indicates that Citi does not dismiss the long-term bullish trend but believes that medium-term performance will be more heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.

Ethereum Faces Higher Sensitivity

Compared to Bitcoin, Citi appears more cautious about Ethereum. The bank believes Ethereum’s future performance will be especially sensitive to on-chain activity metrics, which influence its valuation recovery. ETH’s valuation depends not only on policy environments but also on actual network activity and ecosystem growth. However, Citi also notes that trends in stablecoins and tokenization could still support market interest in the Ethereum ecosystem in the future.

Citi’s report states, “Ethereum’s metrics for user activity are particularly sensitive, and while these indicators have recently been weak, trends in stablecoins and tokenization could increase interest and usage.”

This reflects the recent market perception that Bitcoin remains more driven by macro liquidity and policy expectations, while Ethereum’s value is more closely tied to on-chain activity, application adoption, and ecosystem growth speed.

From Citi’s recent adjustments, ETH still has upside potential, but compared to BTC, its recovery path clearly relies more on fundamental validation.

Market May Remain Range-Bound Temporarily

Citi suggests that, before further legislative clarity, Bitcoin may hover around $70,000. This implies that, although the bullish narrative remains intact, the lack of new policy catalysts could lead prices to consolidate within a range rather than rapidly resuming a strong upward trend.

The report also notes that if Democrats gain more seats in the November midterms, the likelihood of passing crypto legislation could further decline, as intra-party disagreements persist over regulations—some proposals aim to restrict officials from profiting from crypto assets and to strengthen AML rules. This indicates that Citi’s downward revision is not only based on current legislative hurdles but also reflects forward-looking political risk considerations.

Wall Street Reassesses Regulatory Benefits

Citi’s significant cuts to Bitcoin and Ethereum targets do not mean a complete bearish stance on the crypto market but rather show that Wall Street is re-evaluating how quickly and to what extent regulatory clarity can translate into price catalysts. The market initially hoped that U.S. legislative progress would lead to increased institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and valuation expansion. When this narrative is delayed, asset valuation models naturally need to be adjusted downward.

For investors, this report sends a clear message: the long-term bullish case for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains intact, but short- to medium-term trends will be more dependent on regulatory progress, macroeconomic conditions, and market risk appetite. Until policy catalysts re-emerge, the market may favor consolidation over rapid revaluation.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: BlockCast
• Original title: “Citi Slashes 12-Month Price Targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, Cites U.S. Crypto Legislation Delays Diminishing Upside Catalysts”
• Original author: Anfei