Monetary Policy

From 23:30 to 23:45 (UTC) on 2026-04-07, the BTC price rapidly fell within 15 minutes, with a return of -1.03%. The price range was 71,905.7 to 72,760.5 USDT, and the amplitude was 1.17%. Market attention remained high; intraday volatility significantly increased. Trading volumes across major platforms briefly surged, indicating that selling pressure and risk-avoidance sentiment had permeated mainstream cryptocurrencies. The main drivers of this deviation were the continued tightening of macro liquidity under the Fed’s hawkish signals and a concentrated adjustment in the BTC derivatives market. The Fed’s interest rate in March 2026

There is uncertainty regarding Kevin Walsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve chair, because Republican senators oppose moving forward with the nomination, especially as Powell is still under investigation. New York Fed President Williams said this uncertainty does not affect the Federal Reserve, and Powell can continue serving in his position before Walsh is confirmed.

French banking analyst Kit Juckes issued a report stating that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged this year, the U.S. dollar will fluctuate. The market expects G10 central banks to raise rates, but Sweden’s economic growth forecast is only slightly higher than that of the United States, which limits the dollar’s appreciation. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the dollar could fall.

Gate News message, April 7, the Federal Reserve’s Williams said that the monetary policy can be adjusted if necessary; for now, it may be observed for the time being. He expects this year’s GDP growth to be 2% to 2.5%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. Williams noted that the labor market situation is quite complex and expects that core inflation will fall later this year.

The negative correlation between Bitcoin and global central bank monetary policy suggests that institutional capital has already positioned itself ahead of a potential easing cycle. In the recent spot ETF net inflows have hit a new high, but the market remains choppy and unstable, with weak demand. Corporate allocation has slowed, volatility in the options market has increased, and traders are more inclined to add downside protection.

The Bank of Korea and France’s foreign exchange bank held a seminar in South Korea on digital assets and climate-related issues, discussing the impact of central bank digital currency and stablecoins on the financial system. During the meeting, countries discussed how to balance financial innovation and regulation, showing the global emphasis on collaborative research in digital finance.

BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is focused on economic growth and may delay the central bank’s normalization of interest rates. He noted that a dovish policy could lead to concerns about inflation and put pressure on Japan’s government bond yield curve, with expectations that the yield curve for 10- to 30-year government bonds will continue to flatten further.

This week, the U.S. will release four macroeconomic data points, including the FOMC meeting minutes and CPI data, which could determine whether Bitcoin can hold the $67k level. Bitcoin is currently trading in a range around $69k, with a 23% decline year-to-date. Market sentiment is subdued, and institutional capital support is limited, resulting in weaker demand—making this a key moment in the long-versus-short battle.

Bitcoin gives back its gains on April 7, trading at $68,800. A U.S. SEC “safe harbor” proposal for crypto has been submitted for review by the White House. Argentina’s President Milei has been accused of having multiple calls with LIBRA’s founder, sparking a scandal. Bitcoin’s market volatility is high; it’s advised to control leverage to prevent large-scale liquidations.

Gate News message: On April 7, Federal Reserve officials Hamek and Goolsby warned that the inflation situation is severe and could even get worse. The two officials believe that the inflation problem is more serious than the job market, implying support for tightening monetary policy. In an interview, Goolsby rated the inflation outlook as "orange," while Hamek said that inflation has been above its target level for five consecutive years, and that the current situation is "absolutely a more vivid, brighter orange."

The market is concerned about the impending military action, causing U.S. crude oil (WTI) prices to break above $112 per barrel and the stock market to rise slightly. Bitcoin briefly climbed to $70,351, then subsequently fell to $68K, and Ether also dropped below $2,100. Investors are watching the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the inflation indicator PCE data, as the economic outlook remains unclear.

Gate News announcement, April 6, Wells Fargo adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve (U.S. Federal Reserve System) 2026 interest rate policy, expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in 2026, whereas the prior forecast was for two rate cuts this year.

Gate News, April 6, Citibank adjusts its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, forecasting that the timing for the first rate cut will move back from the previously expected June to September.

Sky Links Capital CEO Daniel Takieddine said that, as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts weaken, the upside potential for gold is limited. The price of gold is influenced by strong U.S. labor data and geopolitical risk. He noted that gold’s near-term performance will depend on U.S. economic data and policy signals.

The Bank of Japan has issued cautious signals through its quarterly economic report, expressing hesitation about raising interest rates—especially amid rising uncertainty and concerns about price increases. The market estimates the likelihood of a rate hike this month at about 66%. When dealing with inflation, companies continue to face rising costs and consumer fatigue.

Gate News message. On April 6, according to today's CME “FedWatch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 1.6%. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged cumulatively by June is 96.6%, the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate cuts is 1.8%, and the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point rate hikes is 1.5%.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to consider Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Federal Reserve Chair. Although the current chair, Powell, is facing a criminal investigation, Wosch’s nomination process is still ongoing and could conflict with the investigation. Committee member Thom Tillis said he will not confirm Wosch before the investigation is concluded. This shows that Trump faces challenges in advancing two parallel processes.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to review Kevin Wosch’s nomination to serve as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. At the same time, the ongoing criminal investigation into the current Chair, Powell, may affect Wosch’s confirmation process. Committee members have said they will not vote to confirm before the investigation concludes, which could create a potential clash between two tracks of the Trump administration.

In March, the U.S. added 178,000 jobs, recovering from February's losses and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.3%. The stronger-than-expected report may influence future interest rate decisions by the Fed amidst fluctuating oil prices.