1. I have recommended the inscription FERC of Ethereum before, but is there any hope for it now?
The FERC I mentioned in the article is not an Ethereum inscription, but a token issued based on the Ethereum FERC-20 protocol.
The only things I’ve really recommended in my article are Bitcoin and Ethereum, and I’ve repeatedly stressed that they account for more than 50%.
I also mentioned that if you hold more than 50% of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and you have the energy to spare, you can take risks, and you are interested in NFTs, then you can buy Cryptopunk.
In addition, I talked about which coins I invest in and why I invest in them, and what coins I bought and held, and what are the reasons for buying and holding them. But for this kind of coin, I have never recommended readers to buy it.
So readers should not take heavy positions because of which coins I bought publicly.
In fact, in this round of bear market, I also noticed this problem: that is, some readers will have heavy positions in the coins or NFTs I mentioned, but those coins or NFTs will not only fail to rise in the future, but also fall very badly. This may have caused a lot of losses to some readers.
After realizing this problem, I rarely disclose the coins I have bought anymore, and I will be more cautious in this regard in the future.
In addition, I think it is important to emphasize that there is a greater risk of heavy positions in other currencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Even for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the “heavy position” is only relative, and it depends on your own economic situation.
2. Is full-chain lending a pseudo demand?
I assume that the “full chain” mentioned in the question is the full chain that supports smart contracts in the general sense of the industry: that is, the whole chain that spans Ethereum and non-Ethereum (such as Solana, AVAX, etc.).
If that’s the case, I’ve always thought that such so-called “full-chain” applications are not rigid or have limited demand.
I’ve shared this a few times in previous articles and online conversations, and today I’m going to explain it to you with actual data.
The data I use is still TVL, and the ecosystems I choose are divided into two categories:
The first is the EVM ecosystem. It includes Ethereum, Ethereum’s Layer 2 extensions (e.g., ARB, OP, etc.), and Ethereum’s sidechains in a broad sense (e.g., BSC, Polygon, etc.)
The second is the non-EVM ecosystem. In this category, I mainly chose the two largest eco-organisms, Solana and AVAX.
Let’s start with the non-EVM ecosystem.
According to the data at the time of writing:
The TVL on Solana is $633 million.
The TVL on AVAX is $640 million.
Let’s take a look at the EVM ecosystem:
The TVL on Ethereum is $26 billion.
The TVL on the ARB is $2.1 billion.
The TVL on the OP is $780 million.
The TVL on BASE is $290 million.
TVL on BLAST has surpassed $500 million.
The TVL on BSC is $3 billion.
The TVL on Polygon is $820 million.
From the above data, we can see that the TVL of the two largest non-EVM ecosystems, Solana and AVAX, combined is less than $1.3 billion. This magnitude can’t even catch up with ARB, let alone directly compare it with Ethereum.
![u7IHacVp6A1GLiXpGZX8Agf6AGrhQlwmHyLOo7Si.png]()
Therefore, we can say that the value of non-EVM ecosystems is quite limited.
In the EVM ecosystem, Ethereum and its layer 2 extensions are seen as the authentic ecology of Ethereum, while sidechain systems such as BSC and Polygon are generally regarded as peripheral systems.
And what about the development of the authentic system and the peripheral system?
In the last bull run, we didn’t have Ethereum’s Layer 2 scaling, so the sidechain systems BSC and Polygon took the opportunity to rise quickly. However, in the past two years, with the rapid rise of Layer 2 expansion, the sum of the TVL of ARB and OP alone is now rapidly catching up with BSC.
In the foreseeable future, I believe that the authentic ecology of Ethereum will also accelerate the TVL of the siphoning peripheral ecosystem. Not to mention anything else, I believe everyone has seen the siphon effect of Blast in recent days. This will only happen more and more in the future, which means that sooner or later, Ethereum’s authentic system will surpass and throw off the peripheral system.
In addition, let’s take a look back at the hot spots in the EVM ecosystem this year: whether it’s the rise of DeFi on Arbitrum in the early days, the rise of Friend Tech on Base, or the excellent marketing of Blast recently, all of these hot spots have all taken place within the authentic system of Ethereum.
In such a situation, I only see that Ethereum and its authentic system are accelerating to attract hot spots, attract users, and accelerate the formation of a higher ecological threshold.
If this trend continues, how much room can the value of peripheral systems and non-EVM ecosystems rise?
So to sum up, I come to the following conclusions:
The value of the non-EVM ecosystem will be accelerated by the EVM ecosystem.
In the EVM ecosystem, the value of the peripheral system will be accelerated by the authentic system.
In such a situation, where is the value of the so-called full-chain application/cross-chain application?
Meet the needs of non-EVM users (Solana, AVAX, etc.) for assets in the EVM ecosystem?
The number of users in the non-EVM ecosystem is shrinking, and even if there is such a demand, it is decreasing.
Meet the needs of EVM ecosystem users for assets in non-EVM ecosystems (Solana, AVAX, etc.)?
Assets in the non-EVM ecosystem are being lost, and even if there is such demand, it is decreasing.
Therefore, I really don’t see much point in this kind of “full chain”.
This is the same reason as a few years ago when I said that I am not optimistic about Polkadot and COSMOS.
The full-chain/cross-chain applications that I’m really bullish on are full-chain/cross-chain between Ethereum layer 2 extensions, rather than full-chain/cross-chain between non-EVMs.
Obviously, the full-chain/cross-chain application I am optimistic about is not the full-chain/cross-chain application in the general sense of the industry now.
Source: Golden Finance
