With a profit of nearly 10,000 US dollars at zero cost, Nostr Assets reviewed the "BTC ecosystem" for the first time with Fair Mint data

Original | Odaily

Author | Aurantium aurantium

At 19:03 on December 18, Nostr Assets Protocol’s first Fair Mint draw officially began when the BTC block height reached 821716. With the first dozens of draws, participating users found that there were individual lottery pools with a high “luck” rating, and only needed to invest about 3,000 lottery tokens (Treat and Trick, hereinafter referred to as Double T) to win the jackpot of 2,160 NOSTR. At present, the OTC price of NOSTR has reached more than 4 U/piece, which is close to a cost-free profit of $10,000.

Odaily will review the investment of each pool and the lottery strategy in this article as a reference for similar activities in the future.

A brief description of the Fair Mint rules

Nostr Assets Protocol’s first Fair Mint is divided into input, lucky draw, and distribution, and the details of the first two links are as follows:

Pitch phase

The start date is December 11, 2023. There are 12 officially set prize pools, and the last four prize pools have double the probability of winning the first eight prize pools.

The user chooses 1 of the 12 prize pools, invests in Treat and Trick assets, and earns a Pool Ranking. The investment phase can continuously increase the invested assets**, and the ranking is also real-time until the end of the stage.

Draw Stage

• For each block, select 1 of the 12 prize pools according to the hexadecimal tail number of the block hash value;
• The top 50 winners of the prize pool will receive a prize once (51-100 winners in the second draw);
• A total of 15,000 winning addresses will be drawn 300 times, and the first 100 will receive 2,160 NOSTRs, 1080 for 101-200, and 540 for 201-300.

Theoretical strategy vs. actual situation

According to the official announcement, the current circulation of Double T is about 87 million (total amount of 420 million), and according to the average distribution, 5,600 will be invested in each address (it is all a matter of luck, in fact, there will be no such situation). According to the positive ratio of output to input, the ratio of three levels of input is 4: 2: 1, so the minimum input is 8700000/15000/7* 3 = 2484, and the maximum is 2484 × 4 = 9936.

The final lottery results are shown in the figure below, with the following conclusions:

• The average luck of the two-number pool is better than that of the single-number pool, and the probability gradually returns to normal as the draw progresses (but it is not completely balanced in the end);
• The single and double pools each have an extremely lucky pool, Capricorn and Taurus, i.e. Capricorn and Taurus, with the draw numbers “0” and “4, c”. These two pools maintained a high level of luck throughout the whole process, and did not approach the normal probability;
• In addition, there is a particularly unlucky Sagittarius (Sagittarius) in the single number pool, and the lottery number is “b”, which also maintains a high level of bad luck throughout the whole process.

Why is the number required to win a prize significantly lower than the theoretical value?

For example, in the Gemini pool, there are 766 users who have invested less than 400 double T, and it is impossible to win even in the lucky pool, then at least about 150,000 double T’s will be wasted, and some of the pools will be randomly selected as follows:

• In the two-number pool Taurus, 785 users have less than 400 tokens;
• In the two-number pool Leo, 684 users have less than 400;
• In the single number pool Scorpio, 511 users have less than 400;
• There are less than 400 users in 517 Aries.

Based on the above data, at least one million Double T’s have been put into the pool with a near-zero probability of winning. Further, there are about 800 users in the single number pool and less than 1,200 in the double number pool, and about 1,100 users in the double number pool are less than 950, which means that the probability of winning nearly 10 million double T’s is low, so the conclusion is as follows:

• There are many investment strategies with a small probability of being lucky, but the investment is too small, which leads to an increase in the probability of normal investment;
• The total investment is about 72 million, accounting for 82.7% of the circulating supply, which improves the probability;
• There are many users who invest more than 50,000 Double T at a time, and the largest one invests 250,000 in one account, resulting in great waste and increasing the probability of other users.

Theoretical calculation: how lucky you are, how unlucky you are

For a two-number pool, the probability of a single draw should be 12.5%, the theoretical number of draws is 37.5, and Taurus has won 47 times. In the 300-time standard “put-back sampling” (with a range of 0 to 300 draws, depending on the probability), the probability of winning 37 or 38 times is 6.96% and 6.88%, respectively, while the probability of winning 47 times is only 1.74%, so to speak, Taurus gets a four-fold lucky bonus.

In the case of the hapless Sagittarius, the theory should have been drawn 18.75 times, and in the end 13 times were drawn. In the 300-pass standard “put-back sampling”, the probability of winning 19 times is 9.4%, and the probability of winning 13 times is 3.9%, Sagittarius’ bad luck is magnified by a factor of 2.

How profitable is the event?

Before Nostr announced the use of double T for the lottery, the price of double T was about 0.2 USDT or more, and it began to soar after the subsequent announcement, with the main range between 0.35 USDT ~ 0.5 USDT, and once rose to 0.7 USDT before the lottery because of the need to fill in the rankings.

As of the time of writing, the over-the-counter price of NOSTR is about 4 U/piece, and the maximum income of a single account is about 8,000 USDT**.

As of the time of writing, the market price of Double T is about 0.39 USDT, which is similar to the average trading price, and the yield varies greatly depending on the cost of different users, but most users can achieve close to 0 cost, and for airdrop users, they will make significant profits.

Summary

Nostr Assets’ way of using hashes for sweepstakes is theoretically fair, but the number of draws is still not large enough for the results to conform to the law of large numbers. If Nostr Assets still uses Double T for similar draws in the future, it is recommended that users with a sufficient number of tokens have a semicolon to average the probability to avoid extreme cases. **