Probability calculation: How to make Nostr Assets' latest project TNA more stable? "BTC Ecology"

Original | Odaily

Author | Aurantium aurantium

Yesterday, Nostr Assets Protocol announced TNA, the first external project for Fair Mint, TNA is an acronym for Taproot Name Assets, which introduces a groundbreaking protocol for issuing and managing ProgrammabilityBitcoin name assets.

Previously, Nostr Assets had a higher Intrerest Rate for the first time Fair Mint, but the recent popularity of the Bitcoin ecosystem has declined, and Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the official article and the probability behind it in this article.

Introduction to the TNA Protocol

TNA is a protocol for issuing and managing Tapnames, Bitcoin native name assets developed based on the Taproot Asset Protocol (TAP) and designed with easy-to-use integrations for the Lighting Network.

Tapnames refer to human-readable names, such as “satoshi.btc,” that are mapped to the WalletAddress of various networks within the Bitcoin ecosystem and linked to external identifiers such as FIL content hashes or Twitter links. TNA aims to consolidate various Bitcoin assets by forming unique TNA category domains, each of which is assigned an identifier corresponding to a specific Bitcoin asset (e.g. ORDI, sat).

According to the official documentation, Tapname is similar to the ENS name in some ways, but has some notable differences as follows:

• As a Bitcoin native asset, Tapnames is tailored to support and integrate with other Bitcoin-based DApps, including but not limited to payment processing, social web, and community management. By mapping between BRC-20 and other Bitcoin assets, the user experience is enhanced, transactions and multi-asset management are simplified, while also enhancing interoperability and scalability in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
• TNA elevates the traditional concept of Decentralization “Name” or “Domain Name” by introducing inherent Programmability into “Name Assets”, enabling owners to continuously upgrade their assets to include specific financial features and other functions. This will add value to asset owners while reducing reliance on external networks and services.
• TNA inherits the privacy features of the UTXO model to provide a more optimized account experience for the multi-asset BTC ecosystem.

Lightning Starter Explained

TNA Token Situation

Total supply: 210, 000, 000 pcs;

Lightning Starter Credit: 31, 500, 000;

Token distribution: Team & Advisor (10%), Future Private Sale (10%), Community Treasury (30%), Airdrop (20%), Ecosystem (15%), Lightning Starter (15%);

Token Use Case: Staking to purchase or issue Tapnames, participate in the governance of TNA.

How to participate

Participants need to lock up TRICK, TREAT, or NOSTR into one of the twelve draw pools.

Two of these raffle pools are required to participate using NOSTR, one with one raffle number assigned and the other with two raffle numbers. According to Nostr Assets, this commitment symbolizes support for the chain, as well as nurturing the growth of the Nostr Assets ecosystem.

(Odaily Note: NOSTR is Nostr Assets Protocol’s first Fair Mint Token, and there is no official use case for it before.) ）

The remaining 10 draw pools need to be locked in TRICK and TREAT. The documentation states that this established approach will continue, with TNA needing to lock up two pools in the upcoming Fair Mint event.

Due to the unclear expression of the official document, there are several doubts about the way of participation, which are currently pending official explanation:

• Can a single number participate in both the Double T pool and the NOSTR pool;
• How many drawn numbers are allocated in the double T-pool;
• Does TNA’s need to lock up two pools mean that it needs to hold two assets at the same time;

**The above questions will affect the user’s engagement strategy, and it is recommended that the user continue to pay attention to the official account article and Telegram group description. **

Winning settings

• Total TNA prizes: 3,600 (first 5,000 winners), 1,800 (second 5,000 winners), 900 (last 5,000 winners)
• Winning Address per Block: 50
• Draw period: about 300 blocks / about 2.1 days

Stage settings

• Phase 1 (Participation Phase) starts on January 12, 2024 and lasts for two days, after which 50% of the locked TRICK, TREAT and NOSTR will be refunded.
• The second stage (draw stage) time is to be determined, and the remaining 50% of Double T and NOSTR will be refunded.
• The time of the third stage (prize redemption stage) is to be determined, and unclaimed rewards will be returned to the $TNA team.

Nostr Assets said it expects a tighter timeline for TNA based on previous Fair Mint experience.

Policy budget estimates

Double T vs NOSTR Which pool is more worth participating in?

Since the distribution of the draw numbers for the Double T pool has not yet been officially explained, it is assumed that there will be a total of 12 draw pools according to the last situation, of which 8 are single pools (7 for Double T and 1 for Nostr), 4 Double Pools (3 for Double T and 1 for Nostr),

Then in Token probability of winning, double T: Nostr=(7+ 3* 2) :(1+ 1* 2)= 13: 3

Double T float Market Cap = 8700 * 0.59 = $51.33 million

Nostr outstanding Market Cap = 1890* 2.45 = $46.3 million

Therefore, before the release of a large number of tokens in the follow-up of Double T, the Double T pool is more worth buying and participating.

How many Tokens do I need to participate in the draw?

Following the lottery pool distribution described in the previous subsection, the winning Address of Double T and Nostr should be 12, 187 and 2, 813, the same as the previous Fair Mint, and the ratio of the three levels should be 4: 2: 1 in rational cases, correspondingly:

Double T: The minimum input should be 87000000/12187/73 = 3, 059 pieces, and the maximum input should be 3, 059* 4 = 12, 237 pieces

NOSTR: The minimum input should be 18900000/2813/73 = 2, 879 and the maximum input should be 2, 879* 4 = 11, 517

How not to be unlucky?

According to the previous Fair Mint, 300 draws are too few for 16 lottery numbers, which cannot effectively converge with probabilities, and there is great Fluctuation. Therefore, on the one hand, it is recommended that semicolons participate and equalize the situation, and on the other hand, the corresponding ranking can be selected according to risk appetite:

• For the odd pool, theoretically 18.75 times (300/16) will be drawn, but the theoretical probability of drawing less than 19 times is only 58.42% (meaning that if you rank outside 19* 50 = 950, there is a theoretical 41.58% probability of not being drawn);
• For the single-number pool, the probability of drawing within 22 times is 81.66% (18.34% of the 1100 players are not drawn);
• 86.99% probability within 23 times;
• 91.09% probability within 24 times;
• 94.11% probability within 25 times;
• 96.24% probability within 26 times;
• 99.20% probability within 29 times;

The above is a purely theoretical calculation of the guaranteed probability, and the corresponding calculation formula is ∑(C(300, times) × (winning probability)^times ×(1-winning probability)^(300-times)), readers who are interested or plan to further study can list all the probabilities for selection.

Reference Reading

Zero cost profit of nearly 10,000 US dollars, Nostr Assets first Fair Mint data review “BTC ecology”

Analysis of Nostr Assets’ First Fair Mint Rules and Production and Investment Income “BTC Ecology”