Jupiter's coin issuance time confirmed, can JTO's wealth-making miracle be repeated?

Original | Odaily

Author | Azuma

Yesterday evening, meow, the co-founder of Jupiter, the head trading aggregation protocol in the Solana ecosystem, updated the latest progress of the Jupuary plan on the X platform, and officially announced that the TGE time for JUP has been determined to be 10:00 ET (23:00 EDT) on January 31.

As another hot project of the Solana ecosystem, Jupiter’s airdrop has been warming up since the Breakpoint in early November last year, and today, after experiencing the collective surge of the Solana ecosystem, as well as the wealth creation miracle of Jito (JTO), which officially announced the airdrop plan but was implemented earlier, community users’ Airdrop expectations for JUP are also rising.

So, can JUP repeat the story of JTO? We can make some simple guesses based on some of the publicly available data.

At the beginning of December last year, Jupiter launched a JUP Airdrop Quota inquiry website () in advance, through which users who have interacted with the protocol in the past can now check the amount of JUP Airdrop they can receive. According to feedback from community users, basically interacting with the address of the Jupiter protocol can get a “low-guarantee” reward of 200 JUP, and some users with a slightly more interaction say that they have received thousands of JUP Airdrop credit.

According to Jupiter’s disclosed Token Economic Model design, the total supply of JUP is 10 billion.

Previously, meow had preliminarily disclosed the TGE mechanism of JUP, and the tentative plan is as follows:

• Mint 10 billion JUPs first;
• Split 10 billion JUP into two Cold Wallets (team and community) in a 50:50 ratio;
• Withdraw 10% from the team Wallet to provide liquidity;
• Withdraw 15% from the community Wallet for the first Airdrop as well as early community event needs.

Meow added that it is expected that the team Wallet will initially use a 5% share to build initial liquidity, with the use of the remaining share yet to be determined, but a 1-2% share may be increased on day one in terms of liquidity. All in all, it is expected that JUP will have 15% -17.5% of Tokens in circulation on the first day of TGE, 10% -7.5% of Tokens in Hot Wallet Storage, and 75% of Tokens in Cold Wallet Storage.

Now let’s pick up the key information: **JUP has a total supply of 10 billion JUP, with an initial circulation of 1.5 billion to 1.75 billion. **

Currently, Aevo has launched JUP’s pre-lanuch Futures Trading, which is trading at $0.64, with a high of $0.85 and a low of $0.48 in the past month.

• Odaily Note: The pre-lanuch contract on Aevo has large fluctuations and small trading volumes, which has certain reference significance, but does not fully represent the real market price after TGE.

Based on Aevo’s real-time contract quotes, the fully unlocked valuation (FDV) of **JUP after issuance is approximately $6.4 billion, and the real-time circulating Market Cap (MC) is approximately $960 million to $11.2. **

Next, we can compare the above data with the same type of head protocol in Ethereum, it should be noted that combined with Jupiter’s existing business territory (aggregation + contract + DCA, etc.), it is difficult to find projects that are completely consistent with its business type, so we decided to compare 1inch (1INCH) and Uniswap (UNI) according to its main business (transaction aggregation) and track positioning (Decentralized Finance services).

According to CoinGecko, 1INCH had an FDV of $690 million and an MC of $520 million, while UNI had an FDV of $6.74 billion and an MC of $5.08 billion. **

From the above comparison, it can be seen that from the perspective of FDV, JUP has approached UNI, far exceeding 1INCH, which may mean that its current contract price of $0.64 is somewhat overvalued. However, considering that JTO has previously counterattacked the LSD leader Lido (LDO) of the Ethereum ecosystem in FDV, and the proportion of Circulating Supply in the early stage of JUP and JTO issuance is also quite similar, JUP’s current quotation seems to be reasonable from the perspective of MC alone.

Based on the difference in valuation logic, it seems that JUP’s airdrop users can perform different operations - users who believe that JUP still has room for appreciation can continue to hold it after the airdrop, and users who believe that JUP is overvalued can choose to short and hedge on Aevo (there is a risk of getting liquidated) and lock in the airdrop value in advance.

Last but not least, in addition to the TGE of JUP itself, meow also mentioned that there will be two experimental coin trials before JUP, one is a mockJUP that will be released tomorrow, and the other is a meme coin that will be released next week (meow emphasizes that it will be a real meme coin).

This could be another opportunity outside of JUP.