gate Research Institute: Web3 industry policies and macro follow-up (2025.2.28-2025.3.6)

2025-03-06 09:44:55

Preface

This report summarizes the recent Web3 industry policies and macro events of the past week: On February 28, the US core PCE price index in January rose by 2.6% year-on-year, which is generally in line with expectations. On March 3, Trump announced the push to establish a US crypto reserve, which may include BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA as core assets in the reserve. On March 5, USDC became the first USD stablecoin approved for use in Japan. The White House supports abolishing the cryptocurrency broker rules, and DeFi regulation may see a turning point. The US February ADP employment figure unexpectedly fell by 77,000, below expectations.

Summary

February 28 - US January core PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, generally in line with expectations
March 3rd — Trump announced the push to establish the US crypto reserve and will include BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA as core assets in the reserve.
March 5th - USDC becomes the first approved US dollar stablecoin for use in Japan
March 5th - White House supports the repeal of the encryption broker rule, DeFi regulation may usher in a turning point
March 5th - US February ADP employment unexpectedly fell to 77,000, below expectations

Focus Events

February 28 - U.S. January core PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, generally in line with expectations

According to a report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on February 28, inflation eased slightly in January, with growing concerns about President Donald Trump’s tariff plan. The preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—rose by 0.3% this month, with an annual rate of 2.5%. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 0.3% this month, with an annual rate of 2.6%. Federal Reserve officials pay more attention to core indicators as they can better reflect long-term trends. The 12-month core indicator, which was revised upward in December to 2.9%, has slightly decreased. Overall inflation rate decreased by 0.1%. Overall, inflation pressures have eased, which may alleviate the pressure on the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates, especially as inflation gradually approaches its 2% target.

March 3rd - Trump announced the push to establish a U.S. crypto reserve, with BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA included as core assets in the reserve

US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that his executive order on digital assets will promote the establishment of a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies in the United States, including XRP, SOL, and ADA, and stated that BTC and ETH will also become core assets of the reserve. He criticized the Biden administration’s crackdown on the crypto industry and pledged to make the United States a global cryptocurrency hub. In response to this news, market sentiment quickly warmed up, with SOL surging over 20.1% to exceed 170 USDT within 24 hours, XRP rising by 31.5% to exceed 2.8 USDT, and ADA rising by 68% to exceed 1.1 USDT.

Trump’s statement shows that cryptocurrency has become an important part of the US political agenda, and the policy position may directly affect the market. His support may further promote the relaxation of regulatory measures in the cryptocurrency industry and attract more capital inflow. However, the proposal still lacks specific implementation details, and the market is driven by emotions in the short term, but the long-term impact remains to be seen.

March 5th - USDC becomes the first approved US dollar stablecoin for use in Japan

Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings’ virtual currency exchange SBI VC Trade has obtained an electronic payment provider license issued by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (JFSA) under the new payment framework, becoming the first institution in Japan to obtain this license. SBI Holdings and Circle signed a cooperation agreement at the end of 2023 to launch Circle’s USDC stablecoin in Japan. With the new registration, SBI VC Trade plans to launch a test version of its USDC-related services on March 12.

This incident demonstrates the gradual recognition of the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies in the traditional financial system. For Circle, this is an important event to enter the Japanese market, which is expected to significantly promote the application and influence of USDC in Asia. For the Japanese financial technology ecosystem, this also marks a more open and inclusive regulatory attitude towards encryption technology.

March 5th - White House Supports Repealing Cryptocurrency Broker Rules, DeFi Regulation May Face Turning Point

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) at the White House (OMB) released a statement publicly expressing support for Senate S.J. Res. 3, aimed at overturning a rule previously introduced by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regarding total revenue reporting for digital asset sales brokers. The rule, proposed by the Biden administration at the end of 2024, expanded the definition of ‘broker’ to include certain DeFi protocol software, and required some DeFi users to report the total revenue from crypto transactions and taxpayer information. The White House OMB believes that this rule unreasonably increases compliance burdens for U.S. DeFi businesses, hinders industry innovation, and may pose risks of user privacy leaks.

The White House’s position adjustment actually reflects the struggle between the two parties in the competition for encrypted voters, with the Biden administration’s previous strong regulatory tendencies conflicting with the interests of encrypted practitioners in key states for the 2024 election (such as Texas miners, California developers), while the S.J.Res.3 bill pushed by Republican lawmakers has received lobbying support from institutions like Coinbase. The OMB’s this ‘backtracking’ may imply that the Democratic Party is trying to win votes from the encrypted industry in swing states, especially against the backdrop of over tens of millions of Coinbase users and intense lobbying from a16z and other capitals. In the short term, this move secures at least a 12-18 month policy buffer period for DeFi protocols (Congressional review + potential litigation period), but the underlying contradictions remain unresolved— the SEC may still expand regulation through the ‘securities definition,’ and the Treasury Department may use ‘on-chain transaction tracking tools’ instead of broker declarations in the future. For mining companies/trading platforms, attention should be paid to the subsequent policy combinations. If ‘tax relaxation + ETF capital inflows + post-halving hash rate clearance’ resonate, it may usher in a new round of structural opportunities.

March 5th - US February ADP employment unexpectedly fell to 77,000, below expectations

The data released by ADP Research shows that the number of ADP employment in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 77,000 in February, with an expected value of 140,000 and a previous value of 183,000. The slowdown in growth may be due to policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending, leading to a slowdown in layoffs or hirings last month. Both the ADP data and the recent increase in unemployment claims indicate that the U.S. labor market is gradually cooling. Further layoffs by federal contractors and other companies have exacerbated this trend. In a situation of economic uncertainty, the willingness of companies to recruit is weakening, and the labor market is facing more challenges.

The University of Michigan’s monthly survey shows that consumers are increasingly worried about the rising unemployment rate in the next year. The decline in consumer confidence may further suppress consumer spending, increasing the risk of economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring signals of deteriorating labor market, trying to find a balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation. The weakness in employment data undoubtedly complicates the Fed’s decision-making process.

Summary

From February 28, 2025 to March 6, 2025, the occurrence of multiple macro events has affected the trend of the cryptocurrency market. This report comprehensively analyzes the important dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and the macroeconomy. On February 28, the PCE met expectations, and inflationary pressures eased somewhat. On March 3, Trump announced on Truth Social that his digital asset executive order will push for the establishment of a strategic reserve of US cryptocurrency, including XRP, SOL, and ADA, and also mentioned that BTC and ETH will become core assets of the reserve. On March 5, USDC became the first approved USD stablecoin in Japan. The White House supports the repeal of cryptocurrency broker rules, and DeFi regulation may usher in a turning point. The US February ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 77,000, lower than expected. The expected value was 140,000, and the previous value was 183,000. Overall, the rise in US inflation expectations has had multifaceted impacts on the Federal Reserve’s policy, global markets, the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market, and emerging markets.
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Last edited on 2025-03-06 11:29:34

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