Written by: TechFlow
Welcome to another day of decline.
Today’s crypto market was cloudy, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) came under pressure again, falling below $84,000 at one point, a loss of nearly 3 points during the day.
In the turmoil of the industry, negative news has continued one after another: practitioners have left one after another, scandals have broken out between project parties and market makers, KOLs have been openly torn apart due to unfair distribution of benefits, and market trust has almost collapsed.
The cold began to spread to every leek again.
Some data show that the fear level of the current market is the same as when the new crown crash in 2020 and the market bottomed out in 2022, and the fear index has reached 20, which is a state of extreme fear;
The recent announcement of a major policy in the United States to build up bitcoin reserves has ignited the hopes of some investors.
As a bellwether of the crypto market, looking at the price of BTC, it seems that it has risen a lot compared to a few years ago, and it is relatively more like a bull market; But if you look at the ups and downs of the recent period, I think it is a bear market.
Now, is it the prelude to a bear market, or the gold pit of a bull market?
What should we do in the face of sharp price fluctuations and uncertainties? Listen to the opinions of domestic and foreign traders, KOLs and industry influencers, dissect market trends, and see what they have to say.
Wait and see
“What are you doing?”
“I’m waiting for Godot”.
“When is he coming? I do not know. He told me that he would come and let me wait for him here”. — “Waiting for Godot”
Samuel Beckett’s classic play “Waiting for Godot” tells the story of Vladimir and Estragon waiting endlessly on the side of a desolate roadside for “Godot”, a never-present, uncertain existence.
For leeks, this Godot is called BTC.
At a time when the price of BTC fluctuates violently and fear is shrouded, some people choose to wait and see.
For example, Ni Da @Phyrex_Ni believes that at present, everyone should remain patient, wait for the arrival of market signals, and avoid blind action.
In its latest analysis, it is clearly stated that for the average investor who is not good at short-term trading, wait-and-see may be the safest option. He believes that BTC is currently in a “garbage time” phase, similar to the downturn in 2024 when it fell from $73,000 to $50,000, with extremely low market sentiment and a lack of clear positive drivers in the short term.
As for why wait, the reason is the extreme uncertainty of the market.
Phyrex pointed out that the current BTC price has fallen below $84,000, investor sentiment has been repeatedly hit, the positive effect has faded after the strategic reserve landed, the expectations brought by the US election have turned negative, and macroeconomic data (such as CPI, PPI and the Fed dot plot) are still the dominant narrative. Coupled with the recent decline in U.S. stocks and the pressure of the trade war (tariffs), the crypto market may face further volatility, and the risk of buying a dip or adding to a position is extremely high.
This view is supported by the data plane.
The unrealized profit distribution data shows that there is an unfilled price gap between $76,000 and $78,000, which may be a short-term support area; The $93,000 to $98,000 dense stack support has failed.
Another key insight is that the BTC turnover rate is low in the last 24 hours, so the price drop is not a smash for a large number of users.
Considering more of the above, although the current dip buying is attractive, the risks and rewards need to be carefully weighed.
The gold pit is bullish
Optimistic people will also think that the current BTC is at a stage low, and it is worth increasing or even buying the bottom.
@neso: The current price level is a gold pit
Well-known KOLs @neso made it clear in their analysis that the current price of BTC is in a “gold pit” and is a great opportunity for long-term investors.
"Both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market are experiencing a wave of hot money retreat, which may be rushing to Trump’s rise to power, flowing into hot assets such as Nvidia and BTC respectively. After Trump took office, he began to retreat due to policy uncertainty, resulting in a current wave of retracement of nearly 30%. But for crypto, in fact, it is currently in the best policy environment since its birth, and the current drawdown is obviously affected by the pond fish, which is a gold pit in the long run. ”
This view is not unreasonable.
The recent announcement of the creation of a Bitcoin Reserve in the United States, the White House Crypto Summit, and the SEC’s withdrawal of SAB 121 accounting rules mark the best policy environment in the history of the crypto industry.
Although in the short term, the market feels that these policies are not stimulus enough, but if you think back to the hard days of the crypto industry, it is really much better.
The introduction of more policies may provide a solid foundation for BTC’s long-term rise.
In addition, BTC’s 30% drawdown has been described as a “fish in the pond”, mainly dragged down by US stocks and macroeconomic factors (e.g., trade wars, monetary policy tightening), rather than fundamental problems in the crypto industry itself. Historical data, such as the 2022 bear market bottom and the 2020 post-Covid crash rally, shows that similar retracements tend to be long-term buying opportunities.
@Trader_S18: 81,000 open
Traders @Trader_S18 act more directly, posting on X based on recent market trends:
“Based on the judgment that the recent market has fluctuated in a wide range between 8-100,000, more than 81,200 in the morning.”
He believes that the recent price of BTC has formed a wide range between $80,000 and $100,000, and the current price has fallen back to $81,200 near the lower limit.
According to the four-hour candlestick chart and trading volume data, there may be support near $81,000, which provides a technical basis for short-term long positions.
Of course, the trader’s long-term strategy may be suitable for experienced short-term traders, and the entry point of $81,200 is indeed close to technical support, but the risk is just as obvious: if the market continues to decline to the $76,000-$78,000 area, a stop loss may be triggered.
For ordinary players who buy the bottom at the current price, I hope this is not a game waiting for “cutting”.
75000 shots
There is also a school of thought that around 75,000 will be a key price zone for BTC and will need to be watched closely.
Arthur Hayes: 70000 -75000 The market may change drastically
According to his post and related trend data, the price of Bitcoin has retreated from its highs in March 2025, falling below $81,000 and potentially testing $78,000 or even $75,000 further.
Hayes’ analysis suggests that if the price of bitcoin falls to the $70,000-$75,000 range, the market could experience significant price volatility due to the concentration of open interest in a large number of options.
Hayes here refers to the fact that in the Bitcoin options market, there are a large number of open interest (OI) strike prices concentrated in the range of $70,000 to $75,000. This means that many traders or investors buy Bitcoin Call Options or Put Options, and the strike price of these options is set at that price range.
When the price of Bitcoin approaches or enters the range of $70,000-$75,000, these open options contracts may trigger large-scale trading activity, and if the options are close to expiration and the price of Bitcoin is close to these strike prices, holders may choose to exercise the option (buy or sell Bitcoin), or market participants may hedge their risk by closing their positions.
This can lead to large fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin (a sharp rise or fall).
The concentration of a large number of OIs in a certain price range means that the market may face liquidity pressures. If many traders try to buy or sell Bitcoin at the same time to hedge or close options, it can lead to rapid price fluctuations and even a “squeeze” phenomenon.
As a result, Hayes’ warning suggests that investors may need to be prepared for sharp price swings and consider whether to “buy the dip” or wait for a more stable price range.
Eugene Ng Ah Sio: Wait until 75,000
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio said in the TG group that he is in no hurry to participate in trading at the current price at the moment. Eugene reiterated that, as previously mentioned, the $75,000 level is the only level he is interested in at the moment.
Let’s take a look at the Bullish indicator
And if you’re just in need of a massage or a boost, take a look at these Bullish indicators.
First, that country, El Salvador, increased its holdings by 5 #BTC today, and its total holdings now reach 6,111 BTC; The chart shows that El Salvador is clearly a committed DCA player who doesn’t buy much at a time, but keeps buying.
Not to mention another dead long micro-strategy, which has increased its BTC holdings several times from the end of last year to the beginning of this year.
Its boss, Michael Saylor, was photographed holding his head in frustration when he participated in a related meeting held by Trump recently, and perhaps he is the one who wants BTC to keep rising.
But don’t worry, the data shows that the average holding cost of the micro strategy is about 66,000, and it has not lost the cost line yet.
In addition, according to on-chain data analysis, the current VDD Multiple of BTC has entered the bottom range, close to historical lows (such as below -2.9). This is similar to the 2022 bear market bottom and the 2020 post-Covid crash market lows, indicating that the market is in a state of extreme fear and low liquidity.
Combined with the recent decline of about 20% in the price of BTC from $90,000 to below $84,000, and the lack of a significant increase in exchange volume, the VDD indicator shows that investors are reluctant to sell and concentrate their chips, which may trigger a rally in the short term.
VDD Multiple is a ratio that divides the short-term (usually 30 days) VDD average by the long-term (usually 365 days) VDD average. This ratio reflects the rate of recent spending versus the average annual rate of spending, and is used to identify cyclical highs and lows in the Bitcoin market.
Finally, in the volatile kangaroo characteristics of the market, the views of the above schools can only be used as a reference. Xiaobian still thinks that prudence makes the 10,000-year-old ship, and it is better to miss it than to lose the principal.
The price may still be there, but the position must not be gone.
