Bitcoin drops to the $66,000 warning line: a $600 billion unrealized loss weighs heavily, and key support may determine the trend

Gate News: Bitcoin price remains under sustained pressure, currently hovering near $66,000, with a weekly drop of nearly 6%. On-chain data shows that market risk is building up, with holders’ unrealized losses nearing $60 billion. In its latest report, Glassnode notes that the current market structure is highly similar to Q2 2022, when Bitcoin only saw a rebound after further downside.

Data shows that about 8.8 million bitcoins are in a loss position, which is directly tied to the roughly 47% pullback in price from the $126,000 peak on October 12, 2025. Selling pressure from long-term holders has increased noticeably—daily realized losses reach as high as $200 million—highlighting the typical “capitulation-style selling” characteristics. At the same time, Capriole Investments’ demand metric has fallen into negative territory, and buy-side momentum continues to weaken.

The macro environment is also unfavorable. A strengthening U.S. dollar weighs on risk assets, and U.S. capital participation remains low; related premium indicators have stayed negative for the long term, reflecting that institutions have not yet fully returned. Although the March 2026 spot Bitcoin ETF recorded about $1.32 billion in net inflows, this capital has not effectively driven a price reversal, and market confidence remains insufficient.

From a technical perspective, $71,500 has become the key resistance level. This area is close to the average cost range of ETF investors; if it cannot be broken through effectively, upside potential will be limited. Downside, $64,000 support is the key focus—if it breaks, a larger pullback could be triggered.

In addition, the behavior of large holders further strengthens cautionary signals. Over the past year, Bitcoin whales have cumulatively reduced holdings by about 188,000 BTC, and the market has gradually entered a distribution phase. Some institutions have also recently shown loss-driven selling, indicating that high-level inventory is continuing to clear.

Bitcoin is currently in a critical turning point zone, and the price trend will depend on the speed of capital returning and the market’s sentiment repair. If trading volume cooperates with a breakout of key resistance, the trend may see a correction; otherwise, downside risk has not been ruled out.