Bitcoin is moving sideways—quiet undercurrents are building beneath the surface! The expectation that “the war will end” has already been priced in, yet capital is slowly pulling back

Gate News update: Ahead of US President Trump’s upcoming remarks on the situation in Iran, the Bitcoin price has remained range-bound around $68,000. The market generally expects the conflict to ease within a few weeks, but on-chain and exchange data show that capital sentiment has not shifted meaningfully toward optimism.

In terms of market structure, the cumulative volume delta (CVD) has continued to weaken, indicating that sellers have dominated most trading sessions. Even if the price rebounds at times, market participants are more likely to reduce positions on strength rather than establish new long positions. This behavior suggests that upward momentum lacks real buy-side support.

Volume indicators have also issued cautious signals. On-balance volume (OBV) continues to decline during the price consolidation phase, showing that funds are flowing out of the market rather than into it. In other words, the current setup is closer to a “distribution phase,” where coins gradually transfer from strong hands to the broader market.

Although late-session Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) turns slightly positive—suggesting that some buying attempts may be starting—its strength is limited and has not formed a sustained trend. This weak rebound structure indicates that while the market has some dip-buying interest, confidence is still insufficient.

Taken together across multiple indicators, Bitcoin is currently in a defensive positioning stage. Traders appear to have priced in the potential upside of a “war de-escalation” scenario in advance, but they are not actively chasing. Instead, they remain on the sidelines or reduce positions when prices rise. This pricing behavior implies that if the favorable news is realized, near-term upside may be constrained; if expectations fail, it could trigger further volatility.

With macro uncertainty still in place, Bitcoin’s short-term direction will continue to be influenced by both geopolitics and fund flows. The market trend still needs to wait for clearer signals.