BTC 15-minute surge of 0.84%: Upward momentum driven by insufficient liquidity and the resonance between futures premium arbitrage

From 15:15 to 15:30 (UTC) on 2026-04-05, the BTC price fluctuated within the range of 66,938.9 to 67,529.9 USDT. The 15-minute return reached +0.84%, with a swing of 0.88%. Over the same period, market trading activity increased—on-chain active addresses over 10 minutes reached 420,690. Short-term buy-side sentiment improved, drawing increased market attention.

The main driving force behind this deviation is persistent liquidity tightness in the spot and derivatives markets. Current trading volume is significantly lower than the range since the end of 2023, and the level required for buy-side demand to push prices upward has been notably reduced. In addition, Deribit futures are priced at a premium of over 50% to spot (futures price: 100,811 USDT; spot relative price: 66,924 USDT). This has brought arbitrage capital inflows into the spot market, further pushing prices higher.

At the same time, on-chain data shows that user participation continues to rise—24-hour active addresses are as high as 557,218, and there have been no signs of a single whale making large transfers. There are no ETF fund inflows, and institutional liquidity remains sluggish. This makes the short-term market more heavily amplified by a resonance between ordinary active users and arbitrage structures. On the macro side, major global market events are about to be released soon. With BTC, a risk asset, being increasingly sought after, once the technical trend breaks above a local resistance level, algorithmic trading and some discretionary buy-side demand also intensify the upside push.

What needs to be watched is that the current BTC market structure liquidity is extremely fragile. At low trading volume, capital flows in any direction can easily exacerbate volatility. With futures leverage longs concentrated, if the price moves into a correction, a larger pullback could trigger a cascading wave of long liquidations. It is recommended to closely monitor short-term support around 67,300 USDT, changes in active addresses, on-chain capital flows, and updates on global macro news to help prevent sharp price pullbacks and liquidity risks. For more real-time anomaly data and subsequent market developments, please continue to follow.