Gate News reports that on March 19, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold dropped to its lowest level since the bear market in November 2022. Recent data shows that as Bitcoin’s price broke through the $70,000 psychological level, its correlation coefficient briefly fell to -0.88, indicating a clear divergence between Bitcoin and gold (XAU).
Market analysis firm CryptoQuant notes that this trend began in October 2025, when the Bitcoin-gold correlation peaked at 0.289. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s price declined while gold performed well amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, causing the correlation to rapidly drop to -0.55. Although the correlation temporarily rebounded to -0.22, it has recently fallen again to a historic low, suggesting a continued inverse relationship.
Specifically, from late September 2025, when Bitcoin rebounded from $65,868 to around $71,000, the BTC/XAU trading volume increased from 12 ounces to 15 ounces. However, Bitcoin’s rally has encountered resistance near $70,000, with bears attempting to push it below key psychological support. As of press time, Bitcoin is trading around $71,330, trying to hold the $71,000 support level in hopes of stabilizing before the next upward move.
Historical data shows that whenever Bitcoin’s correlation with gold falls below -0.48, it is often accompanied by Bitcoin prices rising or gold prices falling, leading to a rebound in correlation. For example, in April 2025, when the correlation coefficient dropped to -0.611, Bitcoin rose from $80,000 to $106,000, and the correlation rebounded to 0.60. Similar patterns were observed between October and December 2025.
Analysts believe that although Bitcoin and gold are currently diverging in the short term, if Bitcoin continues to rise or gold prices decline, the correlation may rebound again. Investors should monitor key support levels for Bitcoin and changes in gold prices to gauge the next market trend.
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