Ethereum hits the crucial $2,500 mark: capital outflows surge, but valuation risks emerge

Gate News: Ethereum price remains above $2,100 and is currently moving within an upward channel. Despite signs of a market rebound, bulls need to break through the key resistance zone near $2,393 to push further toward $2,500.

On-chain data shows that capital flow structures are changing. According to Glassnode, since mid-March, net outflows from exchanges have increased significantly, with daily outflows approaching 1.2 million ETH on March 22 and between March 24-25. Such large-scale withdrawals typically indicate that investors are inclined to hold long-term, reducing short-term selling pressure and supporting the price.

However, valuation concerns have emerged. The NVT (Network Value to Transaction) ratio has risen from 48 in mid-February to around 60 now, indicating that market capitalization is growing faster than on-chain transaction activity. This divergence suggests that if on-chain demand does not increase correspondingly, Ethereum’s valuation may become overstretched, limiting further upside.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s current price range of $2,130 to $2,203 corresponds to key Fibonacci retracement levels. The 20-day moving average remains upward, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The most significant resistance is at $2,393, a level that triggered a quick correction in mid-March and is viewed as a critical support/resistance point.

If the 12-hour chart confirms a breakout above $2,393, Ethereum could further test $2,494 and extend above $2,600. Conversely, a fall below the lower boundary of the upward channel around $2,023 would break the current bullish structure, potentially pulling the price back to $1,900 or lower.

The market currently shows a pattern of ongoing capital accumulation amid valuation pressures. The short-term trend will depend on whether key resistance levels are broken and if on-chain activity can increase in tandem to support higher price levels.