Gate News message, April 16 — Rising expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire have triggered a global “buying spree,” with markets betting on an extended truce or potential peace agreement. Risk sentiment has rebounded sharply as geopolitical risk premiums fade, driving global stock markets to record highs. The MSCI World Index has climbed for a 10th consecutive day, setting a new record, while Asian, European, and US equities all advanced significantly.
Brent crude oil has stabilized near $95 per barrel, well below last month’s peak of approximately $120. As Middle East tensions ease, the US dollar has weakened considerably, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index on track for its ninth consecutive trading day of decline—the longest losing streak since December 2006. Gold and silver rose, US Treasury yields declined modestly, and the Australian dollar and yen strengthened. Emerging markets and Chinese equities also rebounded.
The MSCI World Index had fallen 9% from the outbreak of conflict through March 30, but those losses have now been fully recovered as markets anticipate a US-Iran peace deal. Investor enthusiasm for technology stocks has also revived, reversing last month’s selloff that had pushed several indexes into technical correction territory. According to sources, the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire agreement, originally set to expire on Tuesday, by two weeks to allow more time for peace negotiations. Talks are underway to resolve key technical issues including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities.
Market strategists note that the shift from “risk-off” to “risk-on” sentiment is redirecting investor focus toward corporate earnings and economic growth, while near-term inflation concerns have eased due to lower oil prices. Investors remain vigilant for potential reversals in negotiations or a “good news fully priced in” scenario that could trigger corrections.
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