Google quantum breakthrough: Does it threaten encryption security? Potential cracking risks for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Gate News message, March 31, 2026, Google’s Quantum AI team released a new white paper proposing a quantum attack scheme that could significantly reduce the cost of breaking Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP-256), drawing intense attention from the cryptography industry. Members of the research team include Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake and cryptographer Dan Boneh, but for security reasons, Google did not publish the full attack circuit; instead, it provided a zero-knowledge proof to verify its feasibility.

According to the paper, the quantum circuit designed by the team requires only about 1,200 to 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million to 90 million computational steps to complete the attack task, reducing the estimated resources compared with the earlier estimate of about 10 million physical qubits by roughly 20x. This means the threat of quantum computing to blockchain cryptographic mechanisms is accelerating toward real-world practicality. Ryan Babbush, head of Google’s quantum algorithms, and Hartmut Neven, vice president, said that hiding the specific circuit details is intended to prevent providing potential attackers with direct tools.

The study poses potential risks to major blockchains such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The report notes that Bitcoin alone has about 1.7 million wallets with exposed public keys, and if more script types are included, the risk could scale to about 2.3 million wallets. Structures such as smart contracts and staking systems may also be affected by quantum attacks.

Industry insiders reacted strongly. Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital, said the research is “very serious,” and Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, also warned that the quantum threat is no longer confined to the theoretical realm. Google has set a target timeline of 2029 for migrating its own systems to post-quantum cryptography, showing that the technology window is getting shorter.

Analysts believe that as quantum computing capability improves, cryptocurrency networks must move toward post-quantum cryptography upgrades as soon as possible, or else existing security models may face systemic challenges. Market attention is shifting to: before quantum technology matures, whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can complete the key defensive transformation.