The risk of escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict rises to 70%, with experts warning that Bitcoin may face a short-term crash

March 12 News: The US-Iran war situation continues to worsen, with forecasts indicating the conflict could last until May, with risks soaring to 70%. As military deployments in the Middle East increase and diplomatic efforts fail, oil prices have surged past $95 per barrel, and global markets face geopolitical tensions, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of April is only 47%. The Trump administration estimates that the first week of the war caused losses of up to $11.3 billion. American political scientist John Mearsheimer stated that the US is at a disadvantage in the Iran conflict, lacking a clear exit strategy, and Iran may prolong the war into a long-term attrition, while using attacks on Gulf infrastructure to exert economic pressure.

Investor risk aversion has increased, with the US dollar index (DXY) rising to 99.5, also causing short-term volatility in Bitcoin. Kevin Steuer told The David Lin Report that a break above $100 per barrel for oil, the VIX index rising above 30, and escalating Middle East conflicts are signals of a potential Bitcoin crash. He warned that whether Bitcoin bottoms out depends on the resolution of US-Iran tensions; if the conflict escalates, traders may shift to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

Senior trader Peter Brandt believes that after retesting support levels, oil prices may continue to rise and remains cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. He noted that the market is still dominated by bullish sentiment, but price fluctuations and declining trading volume indicate waning investor interest. Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $68,000 and $71,000, with the current price around $69,822, and 24-hour trading volume down about 10%, showing a clear short-term market wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts believe that if the US-Iran conflict persists, volatility in oil prices and risk assets will intensify. Cryptocurrency investors should pay attention to geopolitical risks and evaluate potential Bitcoin pullback pressures and safe-haven asset allocation strategies.