#四月行情预测分享 Before breaking through the short-term holder cost line, the fluctuation and whipsaw process in the Bitcoin market will continue for some time. More importantly, in this cycle, the profit ratio of short-term holders has never surpassed the level of 42%. If Bitcoin completely falls below $76,000 and starts to signal a transition into a bear market, it would be an extremely abnormal phenomenon. Bitcoin is in a very critical phase, especially from a long-term trend perspective. Similar Bitcoin price signals have only appeared four times so far, three of which triggered bear markets or a sustained downward trend. Over the past year, the percentage change in Bitcoin's price has once again shown a trend of about to fall into negative territory. In the historical context of the previous four similar situations, three indicated that prices would decline in the long term, with only one exception, which was in 2020. At that time, accompanied by the outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks collectively implemented monetary easing policies, providing a strong upward impetus for Bitcoin. Unlike in the past, the macro liquidity environment we are currently in, especially the liquidity expansion, is far less than in previous cycles. This is also why Bitcoin's overall increase is relatively small, or why altcoins have experienced large fluctuations like a roller coaster. Of course, the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF has made it easier for traditional funds to flow into Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is still in a bull run, while most altcoins are at bear market levels. It is important to understand that as Bitcoin's market capitalization continues to expand, the percentage price fluctuations will naturally tend to converge. A few months ago, during the peak period, Bitcoin's market capitalization even approached $2 trillion. Under such a relatively large scale compared to the past, achieving multiples of tens or hundreds in a single cycle has become less realistic. This is a result of structural evolution and an inevitable trend brought about by the maturation of assets. From an overall performance perspective, Bitcoin's price has not yet shown the explosive growth seen in the past, but from the bottom of $16,000, it has still recorded an increase of over 600%.