Non-farm payrolls disappoint, why does the crypto market fall instead of rise? The battle between bulls and bears at the $110,000 threshold will be revealed tonight!

Weak economic data strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts, but the crypto market is playing out a "good news fully priced in" scenario, behind which is a fierce game between institutional profit-taking and retail panic.

---

On September 5th, Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped a "bomb": Non-farm employment in August increased by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (the highest since 2021).

The moment the data was released, the dollar index fell by 0.73%, and gold surged to a historic high. However, the crypto market showed an unexpected trend: Bitcoin briefly surged before quickly retreating, even dipping below the $109,000 mark at one point.

Why doesn't the market play by the rules?

In traditional logic, weak economic data → strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts → risk assets rise. However, this time the market has shown a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction, with three key factors behind it:

1. The expectations have already been priced in.
"It's like a match whose outcome is already known," market analyst Zhang Wei stated. "The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has already reached 97.6%, and the benefits have already been priced in by the market."

2. Concerns about economic recession outweigh the joy of interest rate cuts
Worse-than-expected data has sparked concerns in the market that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of recession. "Investors suddenly realized that the economy might be in serious trouble," said senior trader Li Na, "these concerns outweigh the joy brought by interest rate cuts."

3. Whale Sell-offs and Technical Resistance
Data shows that recently a giant whale sold off 270 million US dollars worth of Bitcoin in one go, combined with the strong technical resistance around 112,000 US dollars for Bitcoin, which collectively triggered this round of correction.

The truth behind the data: has the job market really "cooled down"?

In addition to the disappointing non-farm payrolls, more indicators show that the U.S. job market is rapidly cooling:

- ADP employment increased by only 54,000 (expected 68,000)
- Weekly working hours decreased to 34.2 hours (a sign of weakened employer demand)
- The number of layoffs has surged, and companies' willingness to hire has dropped to its lowest level since 2009.

"American bosses have suddenly become collectively 'Zen': not hiring, not opening, and not working overtime—focusing on a 'lying flat management' style." remarked a market observer.

Where is the crypto market headed? Pay attention to these two key levels.

Technical analysts have pointed out two key positions for the future market direction:

Breakout level: $112,000
If it effectively breaks through this position, Bitcoin will open up space towards 115,000-120,000 USD.

Downward defense level: $107,600
If it falls below this key support, it may drop to the 105,000 or even 102,000 USD area.

"The market is currently in a very delicate position," technical analyst Wang Tao said, "Both bulls and bears are waiting for the other side to make a mistake first."

How should investors respond?

In this highly uncertain market environment, experts recommend adopting the following strategies:

1. Reduce leverage, control risk
"Market volatility has significantly increased, and high-leverage traders are likely to be instantly liquidated," warned Chen Ming, head of the risk management department.

2. Gradually allocate, avoid chasing rises and killing falls.
For long-term investors, it may be worth considering to gradually build positions near key support levels, but avoid making a heavy investment all at once.

3. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's September meeting
The market's focus is now on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17, which will be the next key catalyst determining the market direction.

Market Outlook: Short-term Pain or Long-term Turning Point?

Despite short-term adjustments, most analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term trend.

"If the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle, improved liquidity will ultimately benefit risk assets," said Chief Strategist Zhao Jie. "The current adjustment may provide a better starting point for the next rise."

However, some analysts remain cautious. "We need to be vigilant about the risk of the economy truly entering a recession," warned Liu Fang, director of the Economic Research Institute, "If the economic fundamentals deteriorate, any easing policy may be futile."

---

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investment carries high risks, please make decisions cautiously. #今日你看涨还是看跌？ #九月份加密市场能否突破 #比特币市场动态