#美联储政策对加密市场的影响 The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to nearly 70%. This data change reflects an increasing market expectation of a shift in Fed policy. From on-chain data, there have not been any significant movements in large address holdings and exchange fund flows recently, indicating that institutional investors are responding relatively cautiously. However, if rate cut expectations strengthen further, it may stimulate demand for risk assets, making it worthwhile to continue tracking the fund movements of whale accounts and the interactions of smart contracts to capture potential changes in market sentiment. It is recommended that investors remain vigilant and closely monitor subsequent speeches from Fed officials and economic data to assess the actual likelihood of a policy shift.