On November 29, the CME "Fed Watch" data showed that the probability of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to 86.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is only 13.6%. Looking at a longer time frame, market expectations for the policy path before January next year are diverging: the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 67.1%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is reduced to 10%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is recorded at 23%.