# The Amazon Fire Phone Taught Me Everything About Picking Winners

Here's an embarrassing confession: I dumped Amazon stock in 2014 because I thought the Fire Phone was trash. Turns out I was right about the phone being a disaster—but dead wrong about selling. AMZN went on to become a 14-bagger after I bailed.

The brutal lesson? Stop betting against founder-led companies trying new things. Bezos and crew weren't afraid to fail on Fire Phone, which meant they could keep experimenting with AWS, Prime, and Whole Foods. That's how trillion-dollar empires get built.

Fast forward to today: I'm applying that exact lesson to TransMedics (TMDX), a medical logistics company I'm actively adding to. When they acquired an aviation unit in 2023, the stock got cut in half—and yeah, my gut screamed "sell." But I didn't. I gave founder Waleed Hassanein space to execute.

Two years later? Stock's up 3x from lows. Transplant volume up 32% last quarter, logistics revenue soaring 35%, and net margins hit 17%. The aviation network that looked like a disaster now handles 78% of transplants under their national program.

The playbook is simple: founder-led companies that swing for the fences tend to crush the market. Sometimes they miss (Fire Phone). Most times they don't (AWS, Prime, now TransMedics' logistics network). I'm not selling on the dip—I'm buying more.

Warren Buffett nailed it: "It's good to learn from mistakes. Better to learn from other people's." I paid tuition on Amazon back then. TransMedics is my redemption arc.