Circle's Arc Network: Can It Actually Challenge PayPal & Coinbase?

Circle just launched Arc Network’s public testnet in Q3 2025, and it’s already flexing with 100+ major partners (AWS, BlackRock, HSBC, Visa, Mastercard). The pitch is clean: faster, cheaper, more secure payments infrastructure targeting traditional finance + crypto integration.

Here’s what matters:

The Growth Signal Circle’s Payments Network (CPN) is scaling hard—29 financial institutions live, 500+ in queue, and payment volume jumped 100x in just 5 months. If Arc + CPN converge as planned, Circle could become the bridge between TradFi and blockchain.

The Competition Reality Check But they’re not alone. PayPal’s Pay with Crypto lets U.S. merchants accept 100+ cryptocurrencies with 0.99% fees and claims to cut cross-border costs by 90%. Coinbase? They’re going after merchant adoption too—Shopify partnership on Base offering USDC payments with zero FX friction to millions of sellers.

The Stock Math CRCL is down 15.8% since IPO (June 2025), trading at a 5.21 forward P/S vs. the industry’s 2.94. 2026 earnings estimates were just revised up 21% to $0.92/share, but the company’s still running losses ($0.87/share expected for 2025). Consensus: Hold (Zacks Rank #3).

Bottom Line Arc Network won’t launch commercially until 2026. The real test is execution at scale. Payment infrastructure sounds boring but it’s a multi-trillion market if done right. Circle’s betting it can thread the needle between institutional finance and crypto rails. Early traction is real, but the valuation premium suggests a lot is already priced in.