This is a very important chart analysis for you to understand.

I am seeing people talking about $35k levels next year and it's absolute rubbish.

Firstly, for Bitcoin to retrace 75% it actually has to fully expand, and this cycle, it just did not do that.

Those kinds of retraces are only possible because the level of expansion makes that level of contraction possible.

You can see on the 1M RSI that we barely even touched any degree of overbought, for the first time ever.

Every previous cycle has had huge pushes into the upper band of oversold.

Secondly, even if this is the big bad bear market, Bitcoin has never breached the lower 1M Bollinger bands on its bottom.

And that is currently at $55k.

In 2017, after one of the most explosive runs Bitcoin ever had where it pushed 160x, it didn't even go down to the lower Bollinger band... so why, after the weakest expansion ever, is it going to have the deepest contraction based on expansion level ever?

News flash... its not.

And as I keep mentioning on my page, the whole setup right now is mirroring 2019, not 2018 and 2021.

So thirdly, we can see that in 2019 around the time QT ended Bitcoin retraced into the mid level Bollinger band and found support.

Exactly where we are now, with the RSI is the same place.

Basically, absolute worse case scenario and if this is a big bad bear... if we close this monthly candle below the mid line then we could be expecting a maximum bottom of $55k.

And even then that is a push.

You have to understand what drives price and stop just looking at arbritary numbers.