#美联储利率政策 Looking back at the Fed's policy cycles, the current direction of interest rates is indeed difficult to predict. In previous years, by the end of the year, market expectations for the next year's policy were basically set, but now it is shrouded in fog. Looking at the latest news, the outcome of the December meeting is difficult to predict, with the probabilities of a rate cut and holding steady each accounting for half. This situation reminds me of the years following the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the economic recovery was slow, inflation was low, and the Fed was also repeatedly weighing between raising rates and maintaining low rates.

The current situation is somewhat similar, yet not entirely the same. Inflation is indeed falling, but still above the target level; the labor market remains strong, but growth momentum is weakening. In this complex scenario, it is inevitable that Fed officials will have differing opinions. Some are concerned that premature rate cuts could reignite inflation, while others worry that delaying rate cuts might trigger a recession.

Historically, the Fed tends to be cautious when shifting its policy. I believe that unless economic data deteriorates significantly in the coming month, it is more likely that the interest rate will remain unchanged in December. However, the market needs to be prepared for possible policy adjustments in 2024. After all, the economic cycle is never constant, and the key is to prepare for the unexpected and manage risks effectively.