#美联储货币政策 Looking back at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycles over the past few decades, one can't help but feel that history always repeats itself. This time, the collective dovish signals from Fed officials remind me of the days after the burst of the internet bubble in 2000. Back then, under economic downward pressure, the Greenspan-led Fed also initiated a significant rate-cutting cycle.

Now, it seems the Fed is once again at a similar crossroads. Inflationary pressures have eased, but economic growth momentum is lacking, and a government shutdown would only make things worse. In this situation, pausing rate cuts is indeed a poor choice. However, unlike 20 years ago, structural changes brought by new technologies like AI must also be considered.

From historical experience, the Fed often only takes action after economic indicators have clearly turned, and this time is probably no exception. It is expected that they will continue to monitor data changes and officially start the rate-cutting cycle early next year. For investors, the key is to closely watch changes in employment and inflation data to seize the timing of policy shifts. After all, every policy adjustment by the Fed brings a new round of market volatility and opportunities.