#比特币市场分析 Looking back at Bitcoin's history, such market volatility is not uncommon. Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through multiple cycles of sharp rises and falls. The current market focus on whether Bitcoin has bottomed reminds me of the bear market trough in 2018. Back then, many people were also waiting for signs of a rebound from the bottom.

Today, Bitcoin is much more closely correlated with traditional financial markets and is no longer an independent niche asset. As Peter Tchir's analysis shows, Bitcoin has formed complex linkages with the stock market, ETFs, and other instruments. In this setup, Bitcoin's price movements have a more profound impact on the overall economy.

Although the recent decline has been significant, the derivatives market remains optimistic. Year-end options bets indicate that investors still expect an upward trend. History tells us that market sentiment often leads prices.

However, we must also be cautious: focusing too much on short-term volatility may cause us to overlook long-term trends. The true value of Bitcoin does not lie in its short-term price fluctuations, but in its potential as a decentralized store and transfer of value. No matter how it moves in the short term, this fundamental aspect has not changed.

At present, we need to closely monitor US economic data and ETF capital flows. These factors will affect short-term price movements. But more importantly, we should avoid short-sighted thinking and evaluate Bitcoin's position in the global financial system from a long-term perspective. History tells us that those who maintain their conviction during downturns often reap substantial rewards in the next cycle.