The Federal Reserve will provide its last answer of the year early in the morning.

The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut — with an 89.4% probability. Smart money and retail investors are waiting for the same thing.

In fact, everyone knows whether there will be a rate cut or not; the key is how the expectations chart will look after the cut.

If it's just a routine 25 basis points, along with a roadmap indicating no more cuts next year, the market will most likely turn downward immediately.