12.16 Bitcoin Auntie's Morning Thoughts

The Nikkei has already started to react. As we get closer to December 19th, the date of the People's Bank of China’s interest rate hike, the pressure will only increase. Once the continuous decline becomes habitual, the subsequent damage is often much more severe than expected.

This time, market sentiment is noticeably different. Since Powell's last speech, expectations for this non-farm payroll report have been raised significantly. Everyone is betting on the data being “good,” and this data directly affects whether the expectation of rate cuts can still stand.

In one sentence: this is a key data point that can directly ignite or extinguish market sentiment, and must be closely watched.

Look at the US stocks—at this position, signs of instability are already appearing. Just one last drop of water, and it could collapse at any moment.

From a technical perspective, the situation is not optimistic: on the 4-hour chart, the price has already broken through the lower Bollinger Band, which is trending downward with an open mouth, a typical downtrend pattern. After breaking the band, there has been no significant rebound; the price remains tightly pressed near the lower band, indicating that the bears still hold strong control. Regarding MACD, the death cross continues to extend, with the green momentum bars not only not shrinking but actually increasing, implying that the bears are not done yet. Although KDJ has entered the oversold zone, the golden cross has not yet appeared, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are not very active. Even if there is a rebound, its strength is likely limited. More importantly, watch out for the market testing new lows again.

In one sentence:
📌 Now is not the time for sentiment to fight for a rebound, but rather a stage to guard against “another kick.”
📌 Data, interest rate expectations, and technical structure are resonating, and short-term risks still lean toward downside.

Personal Suggestions
Bitcoin: Enter at 86500-87000, target down to 85000, if broken, watch 83000!
Auntie: Enter at 2970-3000, target down to 2860, if broken, watch 2600!
$BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹