2025-12-19 11:46:37

The Bank of Japan today pushed interest rates up to 0.75%, but the yen did not appreciate; instead, it depreciated.

Initially, the market worried that yen appreciation would trigger arbitrage unwinding, but that did not happen, indicating that this 0.25 percentage point rate hike is not enough to make a difference.

This is actually a double-edged sword. A weaker yen means arbitrage trading is still ongoing, and the global liquidity game is not over yet. However, the premise of this game is that the Federal Reserve must maintain relative easing.

The problem lies here: Trump's entire economic framework relies heavily on the stock market, and tech stocks are extremely sensitive to liquidity.

Once the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity, the Nasdaq will be the first to struggle; tax cuts and fiscal expansion will be out of the question.

In the past few days, $BTC has repeatedly drawn the door, with both bulls and bears exploding. I also can't understand what will happen next.

BTC-1,2%

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