#美国经济数据 Seeing the PCE data fall back to 2.8%, I actually become more cautious. Don't be fooled by the surface of "improving data"—this is precisely the time when it's easiest to get caught in a trap.

Reflecting on my lessons over the years, whenever the market forms a high consensus around a certain expectation, that's where the risks are most concentrated. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has been priced in at 84%, and Wall Street, investors, and even the FOMC members are betting on this "certainty." But look at how divided the FOMC is—5 out of 12 members oppose, something that hasn't happened since 2019. That's not a good sign.

Having gone through several rounds of cutting the grass, I can feel that when everyone bets on the same direction, the big players are most willing to do the opposite and harvest. Although the September PCE has declined, core PCE remains high, and Fed Chair Powell's stance is even more critical—will he signal a more hawkish outlook? If so, December might not see a rate cut at all.

My advice is: at this point in time, reduce superstitions about "certainty." Whether betting on rate cuts or bottom-fishing assets, always leave enough risk buffers. The secret to surviving on-chain is that when everyone sees the same light, the moment the light goes out is often when the big players dump. Stay steady, don’t let FOMO cloud your judgment.