#宏观经济 This week's Federal Reserve meeting is under close watch because it relates to the overall market rhythm. The 84% probability of rate cuts seems solid, but there's a detail that's easy to overlook—there are 5 members of the FOMC who oppose or doubt further easing of monetary policy, a level of disagreement not seen since 2019.
My experience is that the more "settled" things appear, the more caution is needed regarding underlying disagreements. Powell's wording is more critical than the actual rate cuts; how he describes the future path will directly influence market expectations. I don'

#加密货币监管框架 Seeing the regulatory authorities' stance this time, I have to be honest: over the past three years, I have seen too many people get caught in the crypto market, and every time a regulatory risk warning is issued, it can become a market turning point.
Do you remember the announcement in May 2021? Bitcoin dropped over 30% that day, crashing from 43,000 to 30,000. Several friends I know who were using leverage were liquidated that day, suffering heavy losses. Then in 2022, during the NFT wave, the Internet Finance Association issued a notice, leading Tencent Huanhe and Alibaba Jingtan

#预测市场活动 After reviewing the 2025 market recap, the most heartbreaking statement is: "TGE has become a selling point for early participants and teams rather than value creation." This is the harsh truth about us old韭菜 being cut.
Do you remember those projects that loudly claimed "Airdrop is coming"? As soon as TGE launched, they dumped the price, teams quickly unlocked, retail investors bought the dip. I've seen too many套路 like this—high FDV, zero revenue, projects sustained by memes and FOMO, ending up with nothing. Liquidity has been drained by these trash projects, while those truly buildin

#美国经济数据 Seeing the PCE data fall back to 2.8%, I actually become more cautious. Don't be fooled by the surface of "improving data"—this is precisely the time when it's easiest to get caught in a trap.
Reflecting on my lessons over the years, whenever the market forms a high consensus around a certain expectation, that's where the risks are most concentrated. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has been priced in at 84%, and Wall Street, investors, and even the FOMC members are betting on this "certainty." But look at how divided the FOMC is—5 out of 12 members oppose,

#美联储货币政策 Seeing the farce surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chair appointment, I was reminded of the losses I’ve suffered in the market over the years. The new chair faces a "triple threat" of rate cuts, tariffs, and inflation—sounds familiar, right? Policy contradictions, chaotic market signals, and retail FOMO leading to total losses.
Hassett is most likely to take over, with an 86% probability. This guy advocates aggressive rate cuts, prefers loose policies, and has a crypto background—look, this combo is like the favorite move of the big players. Liquidity easing + falling interest rate

#加密货币监管趋势 Seeing this news, I can't help but feel nostalgic: back then, I was also attracted by the "freedom" of the US crypto market and almost took a big fall. Now, Macron warns that relaxing regulations in the US could trigger financial risks, and I strongly agree. As US regulators loosen controls, stablecoin market capitalization soars, seeming prosperous on the surface but actually fraught with crises. Stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, and once problems arise, the global financial system could be impacted.
Looking back, I was blinded by the so-called "freedom," thinking the US mar

#ETF市场需求变化 This wave of decline reminds me of the painful lessons from the past. The market is always like this—after a wave of enthusiasm comes harsh reality. ETF capital outflows and liquidation waves surge, and everyone is panic selling. But upon reflection, isn’t this exactly the risk we repeatedly emphasize?
Overleveraging, lack of liquidity, macro risks—these are all old issues. Unfortunately, many still get blinded by short-term profits and forget the ruthlessness of the market.
Now, when I see people say this is manipulation, I just want to say: stop making excuses! The market is so b

#比特币市场动态 Seeing this news, I can't help but recall the pitfalls I encountered back in the day. After Bitcoin's price stabilized, the panic among investors subsided, and funds began flowing into bullish options. I'm very familiar with this situation. On the surface, it seems like good news, but in reality, it could be the market makers setting up for a new round of harvesting.
ETF funds have been flowing out for six consecutive weeks, hitting a new all-time low, which clearly indicates large capital withdrawals. Meanwhile, risk appetite in the derivatives market has decreased, with open intere

#宏观经济环境 Seeing this news, I feel a tightness in my chest. Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, with liquidation pressures, weak ETF demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties... These factors combined make the market exceptionally fragile. Recalling previous major downturns, I feel this situation is somewhat similar.
The key now is to stay calm and not be swayed by panic emotions. The liquidation wave has already begun and may continue to cause short-term declines. But in the long run, the market will always return to rationality. What we need to do is manage risk, avoid leverage trading, and keep

#链上分析工具 Seeing this message, I can't help but reflect on the importance of on-chain analysis tools. Google executives using insider information to predict the market and make a fortune is truly chilling. As an investor who has experienced multiple market fluctuations, I am well aware of the dangers of information asymmetry. This reminds us that before participating in any project, we must make full use of on-chain analysis tools, carefully study transaction data and fund flows. We should not follow the crowd blindly, and we must also be vigilant against large transactions that seem normal but

#稳定币发展 Seeing this news, I can't help but shake my head and sigh. Projects that suddenly become popular often make people impulsive and prone to FOMO traps. I used to follow the trend and buy a few "hot" projects, only to lose so much that I didn't even have pants left. Now I've learned my lesson and am especially cautious about such high-heat projects.
85% chance FDV exceeds $2 billion? Sounds very tempting, but don't forget this is just a predicted market cap and doesn't represent the true value. We need to view it rationally and not be blinded by surface numbers. If a project reaches such

#加密资产监管趋势 This is yet another familiar risk warning. Remember the announcement in May 2021, when the market suddenly crashed, and many people lost everything. However, this time it seems to have less impact; seasoned traders have learned their lessons. But newcomers should still be cautious and not be fooled by short-term gains. Regulations have been tightening continuously, and withdrawal channels are becoming narrower. My advice is: stay vigilant, strictly control your positions, and avoid greed. Remember, in this market, surviving longer is more important than making more money. After all,

#加密货币相关股票表现 The performance of these cryptocurrency concept stocks is really disappointing. Looking at this sea of red, MSTR, COIN, HOOD, SBET, BMNR, CRCL are all down, with the biggest decline reaching 3.89%. Remembering the enthusiasm when I was lured into the market initially, now all that’s left is a sense of helplessness. However, after experiencing big swings, I’ve become more clear-headed. At such times, don’t let panic emotions control you, and don’t be tempted by so-called "bottom-fishing opportunities." Calm analysis is the key; it’s important to understand the fundamentals and long

#比特币价格走势分析 Someone is starting to hype again. $80,000? I've heard many such bullish predictions in this bear market. I remember back in 2017, everyone was shouting to reach 100,000, but what happened? An 80% crash. Now Bitcoin has surged again, and people are starting to boast. I think, behind this rally, there’s probably manipulation by big players. Ordinary investors, don’t be blinded by these predictions and chase the highs blindly. Remember, the crypto market is high-risk; always control your position size and manage risks properly. Instead of following the hype, it’s better to focus on r

#加密市场情绪分析 This wave of decline is truly nerve-wracking. Watching Bitcoin drop from over $90,000 to below $90,000, many people are probably about to lose everything. Over the years, I've been through the ups and downs of the market and know that there are often hidden tricks behind such sharp drops. Liquidation pressure, ETF capital outflows, macroeconomic uncertainties—these factors combined triggered this crash. Especially for those with high leverage, a small mistake can lead to forced liquidation. Just within 24 hours, 140,000 traders were liquidated, losing nearly $500 million!
In such ti

#美国经济指标分析 Seeing this analysis of US economic indicators, I can't help but recall my own investment experiences. Back then, I blindly chased gains and sold off during dips, resulting in heavy losses. Now looking at these data, I am filled with mixed feelings. The leading economic indicators in the US continue to worsen, dropping to the lowest level since 2008, which is not a good sign. Historical experience tells us that every time there is such a significant decline, the US economy has already entered a recession.
As someone with experience, I want to remind everyone: don't be fooled by shor

#加密货币监管 This encrypted treasury model may seem feasible at first glance, but in reality, it is fraught with risks. On the surface, it claims to provide traditional companies with exposure to crypto assets, but essentially, it is just another scheme to fleece investors. The so-called "management team" and "execution capability" are just smokescreens; in the end, it's still a zero-sum game. I have experienced too many of these "innovative models," and in the end, it's always the retail investors who pay the price for the big players. Don't be fooled by flashy concepts; staying vigilant is the r

#稳定币市场风险 Seeing this message, I couldn't help but furrow my brows. Stablecoins have indeed brought convenience to cross-border payments, but their potential risks cannot be ignored. Looking back, I was once fooled by a stablecoin project claiming to be "pegged 1:1 with the US dollar," and as a result, I lost everything. Now, the IMF's warning is ringing an alarm bell.
For us investors who have experienced storms and waves, it is essential to stay highly vigilant. Stablecoins may weaken the control of central banks, which means the entire financial system could face greater risks. Especially i

#比特币市场分析 The so-called $170,000 target price sounds truly chilling. I have experienced too many times the temptation of such high target prices, only to see the retail investors get completely wiped out in the end. When big institutions like JPMorgan Chase release such forecasts, it’s likely to be a tactic to attract retail investors. They talk about "volatility-adjusted models," which sounds impressive, but in reality, it’s just a trick to fool people.
I advise everyone to stay vigilant and not be blinded by such optimistic expectations. Bitcoin has fallen from 120,000 to over 80,000, and th

#比特币市场结构分析 Seeing this Bloomberg analyst report, I can't help but recall how I was once frightened and panicked by market volatility. Looking back now, it only adds to my worries. The long-term trend of Bitcoin is what truly matters; short-term fluctuations are not worth worrying about.
Last year's 122% increase was indeed astonishing, and even a correction this year is understandable. The key is to stay rational and focus on an average annual growth of about 50%. This "cooling-off period" is actually a good time to accumulate positions.
That said, we also can't be blindly optimistic. The mar