#宏观经济 This week's Federal Reserve meeting is under close watch because it relates to the overall market rhythm. The 84% probability of rate cuts seems solid, but there's a detail that's easy to overlook—there are 5 members of the FOMC who oppose or doubt further easing of monetary policy, a level of disagreement not seen since 2019.

My experience is that the more "settled" things appear, the more caution is needed regarding underlying disagreements. Powell's wording is more critical than the actual rate cuts; how he describes the future path will directly influence market expectations. I don't fully believe the view that "the rate cut has already been priced in," as market consensus can often be a trap.

The real test isn't in December but in the policy follow-up in the first half of 2026. Right now, everyone is discussing rate cuts as a positive, but I've seen too many people caught at macro turning points. The key is to see through the central bank's attitude shift, rather than simply chasing the rally. This week's data and Powell's statements should be closely watched—those "certainty" factors often hide the greatest risks.