#美联储货币政策 After watching the recent changes in the Fed chair, I must pour a bucket of cold water. Don't be fooled by the simple logic of "new chair = point shaving"; this is something I've come to understand after being played for suckers a few times in the crypto world.

According to the latest news, Hasset won't officially lead the FOMC meetings until June 2026 at the earliest. The key point is that the market doesn't buy it—interest rate futures indicate a reduction expectation of only 75 basis points for the entire next year, of which two cuts might be resolved by Powell before he steps down, leaving possibly just one for the new chairman. What does this mean? It means that institutions fundamentally do not believe the story of "changing personnel will lead to significant easing."

Inflation is still hovering around 3%, and when the new chairman takes over, the real interest rate is basically zero — it sounds loose, but it's just superficial. In a high-interest-rate environment, when funds are tight, it's easiest for project parties to run away and for manipulators to escape. By the time the real point shaving happens, it is the retail investors who are most easily overwhelmed by FOMO emotions, rushing in at high prices.

I have seen too many people rush into a project that is already at the end of its lifecycle just because they heard a rumor that the "central bank is going to cut interest rates." The first quarter of next year is an observation period that will allow us to see the true intentions of the new chairman. Before that, rather than betting on policy, it is better to focus on identifying the risks of the project itself and learn to survive long enough in any interest rate environment.