#美联储政策走向 Seeing that Powell is facing a rare policy divergence this time, my first reaction is - this is truly a moment worth being vigilant about.

Half of the colleagues oppose the interest rate cut, which is no small matter. This indicates a genuine divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the economic outlook, rather than the previous kind of feigned maneuvering. I have seen too many false interest rate cut signals lead to crashes in previous cycles, with people losing money every time. What is different this time is that even the people within the Federal Reserve are at odds with each other.

The key lies in what Powell will ultimately say. The 25 basis point rate cut has long been priced in by the market, but what will truly determine the direction of the market is the post-meeting statement—what kind of follow-up policy signals he will release. If the wording of the statement is too hawkish, then this favorable rate cut will be discounted, and it could even turn into a negative signal. I see many institutions emphasizing "hawkish rate cuts", which frankly means—don’t expect any follow-up.

The most heartbreaking part is the dot plot. When 5 out of 12 voting members publicly express that they don’t see strong reasons for a significant rate cut, the dot plot will definitely show serious divisions within the committee regarding the path for 2026. This kind of division is the most dangerous for on-chain assets—it means a significant increase in policy uncertainty, and the market hates uncertainty the most.

The underlying logic is this: If there is no unity within the Federal Reserve, the market cannot form stable expectations, and volatility will increase. During these fluctuations, retail investors are the most likely to be taken advantage of. So my advice these past couple of days is very simple — just watch, don't act. Wait until the meeting is over to clearly understand Powell's true intentions before making decisions. Those who are hastily chasing the trend now are often the next ones to be harvested.