#比特币市场周期与价格 The BTC balance on the trading platform has fallen to 2.936 million coins, setting a new low for the cycle. This signal is worth following. Compared to history, the last time it reached this level was after the FTX collapse in December 2022, and the market subsequently entered a recovery phase.

From a structural perspective, the current balance decline is mainly due to whales continuously withdrawing funds on-chain—behaviors from large holders with positions exceeding 1 million and 10 million USD are consistent, as they are making on-chain reserves rather than seeking to sell. In contrast, retail investors are reversing their deposits, and this divergence actually suggests an expectation of a differentiation in the capital structure. The historical correlation of balances on the Binance platform is quite evident; the four rapid increases this year corresponded to a weakening of prices, while the recent continuous decline provides technical prerequisites for a rebound.

However, it is important to note Grayscale's recent viewpoint—traditional halving-driven four-year cycles are being reshaped by institutional capital and the macro environment. This means that the reference value of indicators like platform balances is changing and cannot simply be extrapolated using historical logic. Currently, factors such as interest rate expectations, regulatory progress, and institutional allocation are playing a dominant role, and the weight of these factors has surpassed the retail sentiment cycles of previous years.

From the balance structure to the layering of funds and then to the changes in market systems, these clues together indicate that the prerequisites for a rebound are in place, but the strength and sustainability need to be observed in the real response of the macro environment.