#美国经济与货币政策 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically locked in (87.6% probability), but the real highlight of this meeting is not the rate cut itself.

There are three key signals:

**1. Balance Sheet Expansion Expectations** — Bank of America expects the Fed to announce monthly purchases of $45 billion in short-term government bonds starting in January. Whether the balance sheet can be smoothly expanded after the cessation of the reduction directly determines the direction of liquidity supply, and its impact on on-chain capital should be continuously monitored.

**2. Increasing Voting Discrepancies** — Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 opposed or expressed doubts about further easing, marking the tenth occurrence of similar discrepancies since 1990. This "politicized" division could significantly alter market expectations for the policy path in 2026, which should not be underestimated.

**3. Powell's Language** — Compared to the rate cut decision itself, his statements on policy guidance at the press conference are more valuable for reference. The market has largely digested the rate cut action, and the real source of volatility comes from signals of a shift in policy attitude.

On-chain, such a shift in macro policy usually manifests in the flow of institutional funds in advance. It is recommended to pay attention to the movements of large withdrawals/deposits and changes in positions on the contract side after tonight's decision. Short-term volatility is the norm, and data takes precedence over sentiment.