#预测市场平台与套利 Seeing the seasonal data of Alpha Arena, I can't help but feel a bit emotional. Grok 4.20 alone made a profit of 22.27%, while the other 7 models all had negative returns. This level of divergence is truly shocking.

But what I want to say is—don't be dazzled by this superficial phenomenon. Prediction market platforms look very impressive, and having AI models compete adds a strong sense of technology, but essentially this is just a disguised "smart arbitrage show." I've seen too many people attracted by similar "quantitative myths," and in the end, they just become the ones who get slaughtered.

The key issues are as follows:

1. The sample size is too small and the period is too short. The results of a single season do not mean much; when the market cycle shifts, the strategy can fail. I have seen strategies with backtested annualized returns of 80% that exploded in real trading within a month.

2. Investing in real stock tokens is inherently risky. This is not a pure quantitative competition, but a contest of relative advantages within a specific asset pool. Once liquidity issues arise or there is a market fracture, even the best models cannot save the situation.

3. The promotional effect is the most valuable. What follows Grok 4.20 making money? A bunch of followers rushing in, and then comes a new round of harvesting the leeks cycle. I see this routine all too clearly.

My advice is straightforward - stay away from any platform that claims to be "AI quantitative" and asks you to invest real money, especially those. The ones who make money are always the organizers of these events, not the participants. Protect your principal, and living longer makes you the winner.