#美国经济与货币政策 Seeing the news of the Fed's rate cut and balance sheet expansion, I have to say frankly - don't be blinded by the words "rise".

Having gone through too many cycles, every time I hear about liquidity returning and signals of easing, the market starts to tell stories. Indeed, from tightening to balance sheet expansion, the funding situation will improve; this is basic logic. But there is a pitfall that many people have not thought through: **abundant liquidity ≠ your project or coin will rise**.

From October 2019 to March 2020, there was indeed a widespread rise, but behind it was a special background of coordinated monetary easing by global central banks and the black swan of the pandemic. The current environment is completely different. The Fed's balance sheet expansion is just the first step; true large-scale monetary easing will have to wait until Trump is in power next year. This means there is a time lag in between—this window period is the easiest to be taken advantage of.

I have seen too many people chase highs with the expectation of "interest rate cuts leading to a broad rise", only to find that what they hold is a dead project. The return of liquidity does not mean that everything is valuable. This kind of market where everything rises is what the big players love the most because it easily dulls people's awareness of risk.

So my advice is: it's fine to be optimistic about this wave of opportunities, but before entering the market, ask yourself three questions - how is the project's fundamentals, is the team still working seriously, and if liquidity suddenly reverses, will you be stuck? Only when all the answers are clear is it worth following this wave of liquidity trends. Otherwise, you'll just be the one catching the last baton.