#美联储货币政策 The highlight of the Fed's December decision is not actually the 25bp rate cut, but the signal of balance sheet expansion. The tapering officially ended on December 1, and bank reserves have fallen to the level of financing stress, with the SOFR periodically testing the upper limit of the policy interest rate corridor — systemic liquidity pressures continue to be released.

The core highlight is the advancement of the RMP plan. According to Evercore's forecast, it will start as early as January 2026, with monthly purchases of Treasury bills around $35 billion and an annual balance sheet increase of over $400 billion. Bank of America's estimate is even more aggressive—$45 billion/month. This means the Fed is about to shift from passive balance sheet reduction to active expansion, although it still holds nearly $6 trillion in assets on the books, incremental purchases are on the way.

From an on-chain perspective, such liquidity expectations are often reflected in large capital movements in advance. Institutional whales often adjust their positions before policies become clear, especially in terms of stablecoin inflows and outflows and derivatives contract holdings. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the market's response following this week's resolution; if the expectation of balance sheet expansion is confirmed, its support for risk assets is self-evident.