#Polymarket预测市场 I just saw a piece of data on Polymarket that the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December is actually as high as 93%? 😲 What does this mean, and will a rate cut affect us newcomers?

Interestingly, the probability of not lowering interest rates in January next year has risen to 68%... It feels like the market is saying, "December is definitely a cut, and then we'll see." Does this indicate that everyone has a consensus on short-term policies, but there are still disagreements in the long term? 🤔

I heard someone say that predicting the market relies on this kind of probability to make money, but I still feel a bit confused. I would like to ask, how is this 93% probability derived, and what logic is it based on? How much impact will such a high probability event have on the price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies? It feels a bit complicated, but I really want to understand!

Is there a big shot willing to give a simple explanation?