# Polymarket预测市场

#Polymarket预测市场 I noticed that the probability of Stable's first day FDV exceeding $2 billion on Polymarket has surged to 85%, which reminds me of a few new coin cases I've come across recently. The data from such prediction markets can indeed reflect market sentiment, but I want to remind everyone that a high probability does not equal high returns; sometimes, it's quite the opposite.
New coins often come with volatility and risk, especially on the first day. I have seen too many cases where people are attracted by high expectations but find themselves unprepared amid insufficien

#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of a Fed rate cut in December on Polymarket has soared to 93%, essentially declaring that a rate cut this month is a done deal. However, I noticed a more significant signal — the probability of no rate cut in January has jumped to 68%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 27%.
This transition is quite interesting. The short-term consensus is incredibly strong, while the medium-term expectations are weakening. From a following perspective, this is a matter of opportunity windows. Some aggressive traders might immediately adjust their positions after the F

#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December on Polymarket reached 93%, which basically locked in this week's policy direction. Interestingly, subsequent expectations showed a significant divergence— the probability of no rate cut in January surged to 68%, while the probability of a rate cut was only 27%.
This reflects the typical logic of the market: a rate cut in December is already a certainty, but expectations for the sustainability of the policy have significantly shifted towards a hawkish stance. From the perspective of on-chain predictive market fun

#Polymarket预测市场 I just saw a piece of data on Polymarket that the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December is actually as high as 93%? 😲 What does this mean, and will a rate cut affect us newcomers?
Interestingly, the probability of not lowering interest rates in January next year has risen to 68%... It feels like the market is saying, "December is definitely a cut, and then we'll see." Does this indicate that everyone has a consensus on short-term policies, but there are still disagreements in the long term? 🤔
I heard someone say that predicting the market relies on t

#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December surged to 93%! This figure is reflected in the Polymarket prediction market, indicating that the market has formed a strong consensus. Interestingly, the expectation for January took a sharp turn— the probability of no rate cut skyrocketed to 68%. What does this reflect?
This is where the charm of decentralized prediction markets lies. Polymarket gathers the real judgments and funds of global participants, revealing collective wisdom through the "voting with your feet" approach, which is more valuable as a referenc

#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the probability of Stable's first day FDV exceeding 2 billion dollars on Polymarket soaring to 85%, I suddenly remembered those new projects that were similarly hyped to sky-high prices before their launch a few years ago. Data can lie, but history never repeats itself - it just sometimes rhymes.
This probability figure is quite interesting in itself. 85% means that the market consensus is already quite solid, but that remaining 15% risk often becomes the turning point of the story. I have experienced too many moments when 'cautious expectations' were slappe

#Polymarket预测市场 The Bitcoin prediction data from Polymarket has fluctuated quite a bit these past few days, going from 33% → 30% → 40%, swinging up and down in just a few days. This is actually a good signal for us coin enthusiasts – the higher the heat of the prediction market, the more interaction opportunities there are.
My suggestion is as follows: first, activate your account on Polymarket and familiarize yourself with the process of placing prediction bets. There is no need to spend too much real money; use the least amount of cost to complete interaction tasks and accumulate platform a

#Polymarket预测市场 In three days, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 fell from 33% to 30%, then rebounded to 40%—watching these numbers fluctuate on Polymarket, I suddenly remembered my days in gold farming games.
It was the same back then, staring at the data fluctuations every day, as if I understood the future trends. But the key question arises: can the probabilities from these prediction markets really guide decision-making?
To be honest, I am currently cautious about these types of prediction tools. There is nothing wrong with the data itself, but there are several traps

#Polymarket预测市场 Wow, the arbitrage on Polymarket is really outrageous 😭 An annualized return of 40% is not a dream. My buddy directly locked in $60,000 to run the arbitrage process, with cross-platform price differences + automated Bots. The prediction market has truly transformed from a speculative platform into a real cash machine 🔥
The most extreme is that hedging strategy—buying Harris to win while simultaneously betting on the Republican Party's vote margin results. If the total price of the positions on both sides is below 1, you directly take the spread. The current arbitrage mar