#Polymarket预测市场 The probability of a Fed rate cut in December on Polymarket has soared to 93%, essentially declaring that a rate cut this month is a done deal. However, I noticed a more significant signal — the probability of no rate cut in January has jumped to 68%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 27%.

This transition is quite interesting. The short-term consensus is incredibly strong, while the medium-term expectations are weakening. From a following perspective, this is a matter of opportunity windows. Some aggressive traders might immediately adjust their positions after the Fed's interest rate cut in December, or even preemptively position themselves for a reversal logic in January. I have recently been following a trader with a more aggressive style; he is particularly sensitive to such market expectation reversals and usually lays in wait for reverse positions when the consensus is at its strongest.

The key is to clarify your order-following and position allocation strategy—if your risk appetite is moderate, it's best to honestly follow those conservative traders to profit in certain market conditions; if you have some room for error, you might as well allocate a portion of your positions to the aggressive side, waiting for the moment of expected correction.

The probability data of the prediction market essentially reflects market sentiment, which can change. The moment the interest rate cut hits is truly when the players' ability to respond is tested.