#比特币价格分析 I wasn't too surprised to see Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin year-end target from 200,000 to 100,000. I've seen this routine too many times — institutions first blow up a sky-high expectation to create fear of missing out (FOMO), and when retail investors follow the trend and buy in, they start adjusting the target when the market performance falls short of expectations. Essentially, they are still testing the market's ability to catch a falling knife.

The key is the reasons they provided - the demand outlook is fading and the pace of ETF institutional adoption is slower than expected. What does this indicate? It indicates that last year's narrative has already been overstretched. The actual institutional adoption is not as hot as the media has promoted, and the incremental growth of spot ETFs is also slowing down. The long-term goal has been postponed from 2028 to 2030, which indirectly admits that it will take longer for prices to rise, and the volatility risk in the meantime will be even greater.

My suggestion is that instead of chasing high price expectations, it is better to understand your own risk tolerance. Those who follow institutional price calls often die in the trend. The underlying logic of Bitcoin has not changed, but the expectation correction period is the best time for large funds to wash out positions. Hold on to your chips and wait to see new demand drivers (real institutional adoption, changes in inflation expectations, etc.) before considering increasing your position, so you can survive longer.