#美联储政策分析 Tonight, the Fed's interest rate cut is basically a done deal, with a probability of 87.6% on the table. But to be honest, what really makes me alert is not the 25 basis points, but the 5 dissenting votes within the committee - a rare situation since 1990.

Those who have experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets understand that divergences in monetary policy often appear before market turning points. What does it indicate when there is mutual restraint among decision-makers? It means that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook is rising. The "political" divergences among Fed officials may sound like journalistic jargon, but the essence is: no one is truly certain about the direction for next year.

It is even more important to pay attention to that "balance sheet expansion signal"—the purchase of $45 billion in short-term government bonds each month starting from January. This may seem like a technical operation, but in reality, it is injecting liquidity into the market. Experience tells me that whenever the central bank starts quietly loosening the reins, various "opportunities" in the market will emerge. New coins, promising sectors, and projects that promise high returns will all rush in.

My advice is straightforward: in the coming months, the liquidity brought by interest rate cuts will lead to short-term speculation in risk assets, but don't be fooled by this prosperity. The divergence among Fed officials precisely indicates that there are uncertainties in policy direction. In this uncertain cycle, defense is more valuable than offense. If you want to survive longer, you need to learn to hit the brakes when greedy people are rushing in.