#美联储利率政策 The focus of the Fed this week has shifted from interest rate cuts to balance sheet expansion. Looking closely at this meeting, the 25bp rate cut has become a side dish, while the real main course is the direction of the balance sheet — the Fed plans to launch the Reserve Management Purchase program (RMP) starting in January next year, investing $35-45 billion per month to purchase short-term Treasury bills.

The key lies in the liquidity aspect. The tapering officially ended on December 1, and bank reserves have fallen to levels seen during periods of historical financing stress. SOFR has frequently touched the upper limit of the policy interest rate, and systemic liquidity is indeed tightening. This is no small matter—when liquidity is tight, the pricing logic of asset prices becomes distorted.

From an on-chain perspective, once the expectation of quantitative easing is confirmed, it means an increase in the supply of dollars and that there is room for real interest rates to decline. What I am focused on is the capital reallocation behind this—specifically the ability of risk assets such as the stock market, cryptocurrency, and commodities to absorb this. If the signal for quantitative easing is clear, the timing of inflows from whales and institutions will be crucial.

In the short term, the market is already betting in this direction, but the real signal strength will depend on the FOMC's implementation statement. It is recommended to continuously track the changes in the Fed's open market operation data and interbank financing costs, as these reflect the true state of liquidity.