This week is the Christmas holiday, and the US stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Relevant institutions and individual investors in Europe and the US will stay away from the market, a situation that generally lasts until after New Year's Day. This Friday, the 26th, is the annual Delivery, and currently, more than 50% of the total Holdings in Options are set to expire.

Most institutions choose to roll over their positions in advance. Since last week, there has been a noticeable decline in implied volatility across major expirations, and the proportion of block trades has also increased.

With the decrease in volatility, the Christmas market and annual delivery and position transfer, three factors are combined, over the past month, the implied volatility of Bitcoin's main contracts has dropped by more than 5%, with short to medium-term IV dropping by more than 10%, while ETH's IV has decreased even more.

The above data indicates that market expectations are relatively flat, with the market anticipating low volatility for the next half month. Just as we predicted last month based on the above data, December is expected to be a low volatility market, and we believe that the next half month will also be characterized by low volatility, likely with a downward trend.