**RRPGAw**

Tomorrow at 03:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes will be released in detail, revealing FOMC members' discussions on the economic outlook, inflation, and interest rates. This is an important basis for market judgments on future monetary policy directions.
After the annual expiration last Friday, options trading still accounts for a large proportion of block trades. This is related to the inactivity of retail investors during the Christmas to New Year period and the need to establish new positions after expiration.
Due to poor performance in the fourth quarter, the

📢 Weekly Trading Briefing 📈
From December 22 to 28, 2024, the nominal trading volume achieved through block trades was $122,143,210 (approximately $122.14 million).

【December 26 Options Expiration Data】
267,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.35, a maximum pain point at $95,000, and a notional value of $23.6 billion.
1.28 million ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.45, a maximum pain point at $3,100, and a notional value of $3.71 billion.
Today is the annual expiration date, the largest cryptocurrency options expiration in history, with nearly $28 billion in options expiring. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have plummeted in the fourth quarter of this year, only stabilizing at the end of the year. Currently, BTC has falle

The annual expiration is approaching, and this Friday the 26th, more than half of the total holdings' options will expire. Currently, repositioning and trading are the main forces driving transactions.
This can generate a lot of noise signals for us. In recent days, it is not advisable to use options data as trading signals. For example, today the proportion of large block trades in puts reached 30%, but this is not a bearish signal. Many deep out-of-the-money and in-the-money put options were traded, and of course, this should not be seen as an institutional viewpoint on the level.
Because wh

This week is the Christmas holiday, and the US stock market will be closed on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Relevant institutions and individual investors in Europe and the US will stay away from the market, a situation that generally lasts until after New Year's Day. This Friday, the 26th, is the annual Delivery, and currently, more than 50% of the total Holdings in Options are set to expire.
Most institutions choose to roll over their positions in advance. Since last week, there has been a noticeable decline in implied volatility across major expirations, and the proportion of block t

In the just-concluded Federal Reserve policy meeting, a 25 basis point rate cut was expectedly implemented. The Fed announced the restart of purchasing (T-bills) worth $40 billion. The dovish stance can well supplement financial system liquidity, which is undoubtedly a clear positive for the market.
However, it is premature to restart QE and call for a bull market now. With Christmas and year-end settlements approaching, the liquidity in the crypto market during this period has historically been the worst, with low market activity and limited momentum to restart a bull market.
According to cry

[November 28 Options Delivery Data]
143,000 BTC Options expired, the Put Call Ratio is 0.51, the maximum pain point is $98,000, and the nominal value is $13 billion.
572,000 ETH Options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.48, the maximum pain point at $3,400, and a notional value of $1.71 billion.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have significantly dropped this month, only stabilizing and rebounding at the end of the month. Currently, BTC has stabilized at the $90,000 level, while ETH has seen three consecutive monthly declines and is currently fluctuating around $3,000. Market sentiment

In the third quarter, we observed that the options market held an optimistic attitude towards the fourth quarter. Even during the late August when the Bitcoin price continued to fall, the fourth quarter options holdings remained bullish.
We used to call it the Q4 market or the Christmas market; however, the crash of 1011 and the continued decline in November have completely shattered the previous market structure. In the current market context, the voices calling for a new high in prices in the fourth quarter have completely disappeared, and a pessimistic atmosphere is spreading.
Despite the d

Last week showed a strong falling trend. On Friday, the price of Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000, and the market entered extreme panic. However, with the Fed's dovish comments saving the market, there was some relief over the weekend, but a wave of Unfavourable Information is still on the way.
According to the options data, the recent week has not shown a significant increase in IV. Compared to two weeks ago when it fell below $100,000, the increase in IV is quite noticeable. Currently, Bitcoin's IV for all durations is above 50%, with the short-term rising to 55%. Meanwhile, Ethere

The total scale of this combination trade is 58 BTC (5,287,600), with market makers providing better quotes, significantly saving costs compared to the average price on the screen.
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[November 14 Options Delivery Data]
41,000 BTC Options are set to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.61, the maximum pain point is $105,000, and the notional value is $3.95 billion.
228,000 ETH Options are set to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.59, maximum pain point at 3475 USD, and a notional value of 730 million USD.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are continuing to decline. Currently, BTC has fallen below the $100,000 mark, with no significant signs of a rebound. ETH has recorded three consecutive monthly declines, and market sentiment is beginning to shift from neutral to negative.
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